Top Group Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TOPG Stock | 1,302 1.00 0.08% |
Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Top Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Top Group Software from the perspective of Top Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Top Group Software on the next trading day is expected to be 1,302 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 946.00. Top Group after-hype prediction price | ILS 1302.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Top |
Top Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Top price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Top using various technical indicators. When you analyze Top charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Top Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Top Group Software on the next trading day is expected to be 1,302 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.51, mean absolute percentage error of 514.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 946.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Top Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Top Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Top Group Stock Forecast Pattern
Top Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Top Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Top Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,300 and 1,304, respectively. We have considered Top Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Top Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Top Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.3544 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.459 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 15.5082 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 946.0 |
Predictive Modules for Top Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Top Group Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Top Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Top Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Top Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Top Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Top Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Top Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Top Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Top Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1,302 | 1,302 | 0.00 |
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Top Group Hype Timeline
Top Group Software is at this time traded for 1,302on Tel Aviv Stock Exchange of Israel. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Top is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Top Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,302. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in industry.Other Forecasting Options for Top Group
For every potential investor in Top, whether a beginner or expert, Top Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Top Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Top. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Top Group's price trends.Top Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Top Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Top Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Top Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Top Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Top Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Top Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Top Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Top Group Software entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 391.09 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.01) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1252.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1268.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0204 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 49.5 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.45 |
Top Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Top Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Top Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting top stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Top Group
The number of cover stories for Top Group depends on current market conditions and Top Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Top Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Top Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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