TOP Ships Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TOPS Stock | USD 5.12 0.08 1.54% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TOP Ships on the next trading day is expected to be 5.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.94. TOP Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of relative strength index of TOP Ships' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.9 | Wall Street Target Price 29 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.041 |
Using TOP Ships hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TOP Ships from the perspective of TOP Ships response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TOP Ships on the next trading day is expected to be 5.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.94. TOP Ships after-hype prediction price | USD 5.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TOP Ships to cross-verify your projections. TOP Ships Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TOP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TOP using various technical indicators. When you analyze TOP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TOP Ships Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TOP Ships on the next trading day is expected to be 5.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TOP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TOP Ships' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TOP Ships Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TOP Ships | TOP Ships Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
TOP Ships Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TOP Ships' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TOP Ships' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.43 and 7.77, respectively. We have considered TOP Ships' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TOP Ships stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TOP Ships stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0034 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1007 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0189 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.94 |
Predictive Modules for TOP Ships
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TOP Ships. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TOP Ships After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TOP Ships at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TOP Ships or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TOP Ships, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TOP Ships Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TOP Ships' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TOP Ships' historical news coverage. TOP Ships' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.45 and 7.79, respectively. We have considered TOP Ships' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TOP Ships is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TOP Ships is based on 3 months time horizon.
TOP Ships Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TOP Ships is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TOP Ships backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TOP Ships, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.67 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 12 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.12 | 5.12 | 0.00 |
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TOP Ships Hype Timeline
TOP Ships is at this time traded for 5.12. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. TOP is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on TOP Ships is about 3760.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.14. About 73.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.19. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. TOP Ships last dividend was issued on the 12th of April 2006. The entity had 1:12 split on the 29th of September 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TOP Ships to cross-verify your projections.TOP Ships Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TOP Ships' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TOP Ships' future price movements. Getting to know how TOP Ships' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TOP Ships may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PSHG | Performance Shipping | (0.02) | 3 per month | 3.07 | 0.0007 | 4.98 | (4.25) | 16.86 | |
| PXS | Pyxis Tankers | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.88 | 0.07 | 3.52 | (3.14) | 14.08 | |
| VNTG | Vantage Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.93 | (7.41) | 22.86 | |
| NCT | Intercont Limited Ordinary | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 10.00 | (15.52) | 46.11 | |
| GLBS | Globus Maritime | (0.02) | 13 per month | 2.82 | 0.14 | 12.58 | (5.41) | 26.30 | |
| CTRM | Castor Maritime | (0.02) | 3 per month | 2.72 | (0.01) | 6.25 | (4.98) | 18.43 | |
| XTIA | XTI Aerospace | (0.04) | 9 per month | 4.48 | 0.07 | 11.24 | (7.91) | 25.06 | |
| SIDU | Sidus Space | 0.67 | 9 per month | 7.69 | 0.17 | 34.88 | (14.41) | 125.36 | |
| EHLD | Euroholdings | 0.12 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.74 | (2.53) | 9.31 | |
| NIXX | Nixxy Inc | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.90 | (8.41) | 33.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for TOP Ships
For every potential investor in TOP, whether a beginner or expert, TOP Ships' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TOP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TOP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TOP Ships' price trends.TOP Ships Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TOP Ships stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TOP Ships could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TOP Ships by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TOP Ships Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TOP Ships stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TOP Ships shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TOP Ships stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TOP Ships entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TOP Ships Risk Indicators
The analysis of TOP Ships' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TOP Ships' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting top stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Variance | 6.76 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TOP Ships
The number of cover stories for TOP Ships depends on current market conditions and TOP Ships' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TOP Ships is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TOP Ships' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TOP Ships Short Properties
TOP Ships' future price predictability will typically decrease when TOP Ships' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TOP Ships often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TOP Ships' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TOP Ships' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.6 M |
Additional Tools for TOP Stock Analysis
When running TOP Ships' price analysis, check to measure TOP Ships' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TOP Ships is operating at the current time. Most of TOP Ships' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TOP Ships' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TOP Ships' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TOP Ships to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.