Total Energy Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| TOT Stock | CAD 16.48 0.01 0.06% |
Total Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Total Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Total Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Total Energy fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Total Energy's stock price is about 61. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Total, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.54 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.8 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.44 | Wall Street Target Price 20 |
Using Total Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Total Energy Services from the perspective of Total Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Total Energy Services on the next trading day is expected to be 16.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.10. Total Energy after-hype prediction price | CAD 16.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Total |
Total Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Total price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Total using various technical indicators. When you analyze Total charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Total Energy Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Total Energy Services on the next trading day is expected to be 16.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Total Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Total Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Total Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Total Energy | Total Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Total Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Total Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Total Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.63 and 18.47, respectively. We have considered Total Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Total Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Total Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0419 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.185 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0124 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.0979 |
Predictive Modules for Total Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Total Energy Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Total Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Total Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Total Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Total Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Total Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Total Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Total Energy's historical news coverage. Total Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.52 and 18.36, respectively. We have considered Total Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Total Energy is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Total Energy Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
Total Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Total Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Total Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Total Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.92 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.48 | 16.44 | 0.24 |
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Total Energy Hype Timeline
Total Energy Services is at this time traded for 16.48on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Total is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.44. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Total Energy is about 3031.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.46. About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.02. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Total Energy Services last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 23rd of May 2006. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Total Energy to cross-verify your projections.Total Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Total Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Total Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Total Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Total Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NOA | North American Construction | (0.20) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.90 | (3.92) | 11.18 | |
| ESI | Ensign Energy Services | (0.13) | 5 per month | 2.80 | 0.08 | 5.22 | (4.26) | 14.02 | |
| OBE | Obsidian Energy | 0.01 | 7 per month | 2.45 | 0.08 | 4.08 | (4.06) | 11.63 | |
| SOIL | Saturn Oil Gas | 0.03 | 10 per month | 2.56 | 0.08 | 5.17 | (3.97) | 12.79 | |
| TAL | PetroTal Corp | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.26 | (4.88) | 35.82 | |
| MATR | Mattr Corp | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.19 | (3.49) | 22.94 | |
| GFR | Greenfire Resources | (0.26) | 8 per month | 3.13 | 0.04 | 5.76 | (5.90) | 15.59 | |
| LGN | Logan Energy Corp | (0.01) | 4 per month | 1.51 | (0.01) | 2.56 | (2.47) | 8.51 | |
| SGY | Surge Energy | (0.02) | 8 per month | 2.06 | 0.05 | 3.55 | (3.25) | 9.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for Total Energy
For every potential investor in Total, whether a beginner or expert, Total Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Total Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Total. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Total Energy's price trends.Total Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Total Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Total Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Total Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Total Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Total Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Total Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Total Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Total Energy Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Total Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Total Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Total Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting total stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Variance | 3.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Total Energy
The number of cover stories for Total Energy depends on current market conditions and Total Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Total Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Total Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Total Energy Short Properties
Total Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Total Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Total Energy Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Total Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Total Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.4 M |
Other Information on Investing in Total Stock
Total Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Total Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Total with respect to the benefits of owning Total Energy security.