TOYO Co Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| TOYO Stock | 6.70 0.34 4.83% |
TOYO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although TOYO Co's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of TOYO Co's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of TOYO Co fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of TOYO Co's share price is at 52. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling TOYO Co, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.79) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.78 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.13 | Wall Street Target Price 18 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.007 |
Using TOYO Co hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TOYO Co Ltd from the perspective of TOYO Co response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of TOYO Co Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 6.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.99. TOYO Co after-hype prediction price | USD 6.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TOYO Co to cross-verify your projections. TOYO Co Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TOYO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TOYO using various technical indicators. When you analyze TOYO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TOYO Co Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of TOYO Co Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 6.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TOYO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TOYO Co's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TOYO Co Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TOYO Co | TOYO Co Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
TOYO Co Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TOYO Co's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TOYO Co's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.75 and 9.49, respectively. We have considered TOYO Co's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TOYO Co stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TOYO Co stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9322 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2902 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0444 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.9947 |
Predictive Modules for TOYO Co
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TOYO Co. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TOYO Co's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TOYO Co After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TOYO Co at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TOYO Co or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TOYO Co, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TOYO Co Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TOYO Co's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TOYO Co's historical news coverage. TOYO Co's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.34 and 10.08, respectively. We have considered TOYO Co's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TOYO Co is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TOYO Co is based on 3 months time horizon.
TOYO Co Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TOYO Co is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TOYO Co backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TOYO Co, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 3.37 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.70 | 6.71 | 0.15 |
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TOYO Co Hype Timeline
TOYO Co is at this time traded for 6.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. TOYO is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.71 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on TOYO Co is about 920.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.72. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 177 M. Net Income was 40.5 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 18.34 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TOYO Co to cross-verify your projections.TOYO Co Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TOYO Co's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TOYO Co's future price movements. Getting to know how TOYO Co's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TOYO Co may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JKS | JinkoSolar Holding | 0.28 | 37 per month | 3.84 | 0.06 | 8.25 | (6.11) | 28.47 | |
| OMSE | OMS Energy Technologies | (0.13) | 8 per month | 4.01 | 0.07 | 8.65 | (6.97) | 32.04 | |
| PNRG | PrimeEnergy | 2.28 | 7 per month | 3.27 | 0.04 | 5.49 | (4.10) | 16.27 | |
| SMC | Summit Midstream | (0.16) | 11 per month | 1.33 | 0.16 | 3.65 | (2.65) | 15.21 | |
| BRY | Berry Petroleum Corp | 1.65 | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.46 | (4.20) | 8.78 | |
| TYGO | Tigo Energy | 0.02 | 8 per month | 4.73 | 0.08 | 14.19 | (9.84) | 32.25 | |
| NC | NACCO Industries | (0.91) | 12 per month | 2.09 | 0.04 | 5.25 | (3.78) | 12.21 | |
| RNGR | Ranger Energy Services | 0.11 | 7 per month | 1.85 | 0.08 | 3.77 | (3.79) | 11.62 | |
| SPWR | Complete Solaria | 0.04 | 8 per month | 3.93 | (0) | 8.05 | (6.98) | 19.78 | |
| FTCI | FTC Solar | 0.48 | 11 per month | 4.90 | 0.07 | 9.96 | (7.79) | 58.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for TOYO Co
For every potential investor in TOYO, whether a beginner or expert, TOYO Co's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TOYO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TOYO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TOYO Co's price trends.TOYO Co Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TOYO Co stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TOYO Co could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TOYO Co by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TOYO Co Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TOYO Co stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TOYO Co shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TOYO Co stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TOYO Co Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TOYO Co Risk Indicators
The analysis of TOYO Co's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TOYO Co's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting toyo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Variance | 10.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TOYO Co
The number of cover stories for TOYO Co depends on current market conditions and TOYO Co's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TOYO Co is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TOYO Co's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TOYO Co Short Properties
TOYO Co's future price predictability will typically decrease when TOYO Co's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TOYO Co Ltd often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TOYO Co's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TOYO Co's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TOYO Co to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Electrical Components & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TOYO Co. If investors know TOYO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about TOYO Co listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.79) | Earnings Share 0.75 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.007 | Return On Assets |
The market value of TOYO Co is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TOYO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TOYO Co's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TOYO Co's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TOYO Co's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TOYO Co's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TOYO Co's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TOYO Co is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TOYO Co's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.