Traws Pharma Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TRAW Stock | 2.77 0.35 14.46% |
Traws Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Traws Pharma's stock price is slightly above 61. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Traws, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.04) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.30) | Wall Street Target Price 8 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 46.947 |
Using Traws Pharma hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Traws Pharma from the perspective of Traws Pharma response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Traws Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 2.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.97. Traws Pharma after-hype prediction price | USD 2.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Traws Pharma to cross-verify your projections. Traws Pharma Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Traws price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Traws using various technical indicators. When you analyze Traws charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Traws Pharma's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 13.1 M | Current Value 6.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 19.4 M |
Traws Pharma Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Traws Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 2.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Traws Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Traws Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Traws Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Traws Pharma | Traws Pharma Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Traws Pharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Traws Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Traws Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 12.93, respectively. We have considered Traws Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Traws Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Traws Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7276 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1471 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0782 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.9732 |
Predictive Modules for Traws Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Traws Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Traws Pharma After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Traws Pharma at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Traws Pharma or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Traws Pharma, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Traws Pharma Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Traws Pharma's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Traws Pharma's historical news coverage. Traws Pharma's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.12 and 12.34, respectively. We have considered Traws Pharma's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Traws Pharma is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Traws Pharma is based on 3 months time horizon.
Traws Pharma Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Traws Pharma is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Traws Pharma backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Traws Pharma, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 9.94 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.77 | 2.40 | 0.83 |
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Traws Pharma Hype Timeline
Traws Pharma is at this time traded for 2.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Traws is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.83%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.4%. The volatility of related hype on Traws Pharma is about 9119.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.81. About 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Traws Pharma was at this time reported as 0.64. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.82. Traws Pharma had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:25 split on the 23rd of September 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Traws Pharma to cross-verify your projections.Traws Pharma Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Traws Pharma's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Traws Pharma's future price movements. Getting to know how Traws Pharma's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Traws Pharma may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CING | Cingulate | (0.33) | 7 per month | 4.51 | 0.09 | 7.46 | (6.75) | 20.19 | |
| DWTX | Dogwood Therapeutics | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 7.78 | (11.30) | 33.43 | |
| IMNN | Imunon Inc | (0.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 6.74 | (7.11) | 20.17 | |
| COCP | Cocrystal Pharma | (0.01) | 9 per month | 3.09 | (0.02) | 7.45 | (6.36) | 18.39 | |
| SNSE | Sensei Biotherapeutics | 1.85 | 8 per month | 5.97 | 0.01 | 17.33 | (10.69) | 36.61 | |
| BOLT | Bolt Biotherapeutics | 0.10 | 8 per month | 3.76 | 0.05 | 8.13 | (7.17) | 18.19 | |
| MBIO | Mustang Bio | (0.07) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.00 | (6.31) | 21.51 | |
| EVGN | Evogene | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.77 | (5.22) | 21.65 | |
| BRTX | BioRestorative Therapies | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 6.36 | (5.93) | 37.70 | |
| IMRN | Immuron Ltd ADR | (0.06) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.88 | (12.72) | 36.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for Traws Pharma
For every potential investor in Traws, whether a beginner or expert, Traws Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Traws Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Traws. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Traws Pharma's price trends.Traws Pharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Traws Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Traws Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Traws Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Traws Pharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Traws Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Traws Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Traws Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Traws Pharma entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Traws Pharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Traws Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Traws Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting traws stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 8.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.75 | |||
| Variance | 95.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 71.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 67.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (8.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Traws Pharma
The number of cover stories for Traws Pharma depends on current market conditions and Traws Pharma's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Traws Pharma is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Traws Pharma's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Traws Pharma Short Properties
Traws Pharma's future price predictability will typically decrease when Traws Pharma's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Traws Pharma often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Traws Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Traws Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 21.3 M |
Additional Tools for Traws Stock Analysis
When running Traws Pharma's price analysis, check to measure Traws Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Traws Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of Traws Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Traws Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Traws Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Traws Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.