Targa Resources Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TRGP Stock | USD 207.31 0.38 0.18% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Targa Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 209.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 180.49. Targa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Targa Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Targa Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Targa Resources fundamentals over time.
Targa |
Targa Resources Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Targa Resources' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2008-12-31 | Previous Quarter 166.4 M | Current Value 127.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 77.4 M |
Targa Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Targa Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 209.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.96, mean absolute percentage error of 14.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 180.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Targa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Targa Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Targa Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Targa Resources | Targa Resources Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Targa Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Targa Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Targa Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 207.32 and 210.67, respectively. We have considered Targa Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Targa Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Targa Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.7762 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9589 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0181 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 180.4917 |
Predictive Modules for Targa Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Targa Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Targa Resources
For every potential investor in Targa, whether a beginner or expert, Targa Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Targa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Targa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Targa Resources' price trends.Targa Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Targa Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Targa Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Targa Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Targa Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Targa Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Targa Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Targa Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Targa Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Targa Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Targa Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Targa Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Targa Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Targa Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Targa Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting targa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Variance | 2.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Targa Resources
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Targa Resources position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Targa Resources will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Targa Stock
| 0.71 | AM | Antero Midstream Partners | PairCorr |
| 0.95 | EE | Excelerate Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.95 | ET | Energy Transfer LP Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.86 | DLNG | Dynagas LNG Partners Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Targa Stock
| 0.9 | LPG | Dorian LPG | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | GEL | Genesis Energy LP | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | FRO | Frontline Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | BROGW | Brooge Energy Limited | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | TK | Teekay | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Targa Resources could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Targa Resources when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Targa Resources - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Targa Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Targa Resources is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Targa Resources moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Targa Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Targa Resources can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Targa Stock Analysis
When running Targa Resources' price analysis, check to measure Targa Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Targa Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Targa Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Targa Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Targa Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Targa Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.