TripAdvisor Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| TRIP Stock | USD 13.23 0.37 2.72% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of TripAdvisor on the next trading day is expected to be 13.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.29. TripAdvisor Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of TripAdvisor's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using TripAdvisor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TripAdvisor from the perspective of TripAdvisor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of TripAdvisor on the next trading day is expected to be 13.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.29. TripAdvisor after-hype prediction price | USD 13.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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TripAdvisor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TripAdvisor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TripAdvisor using various technical indicators. When you analyze TripAdvisor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TripAdvisor Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of TripAdvisor on the next trading day is expected to be 13.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TripAdvisor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TripAdvisor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TripAdvisor Stock Forecast Pattern
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TripAdvisor Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TripAdvisor's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TripAdvisor's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.91 and 16.70, respectively. We have considered TripAdvisor's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TripAdvisor stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TripAdvisor stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8775 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4474 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0306 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.2898 |
Predictive Modules for TripAdvisor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TripAdvisor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TripAdvisor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TripAdvisor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TripAdvisor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TripAdvisor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TripAdvisor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TripAdvisor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TripAdvisor's historical news coverage. TripAdvisor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.34 and 16.12, respectively. We have considered TripAdvisor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TripAdvisor is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TripAdvisor is based on 3 months time horizon.
TripAdvisor Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TripAdvisor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TripAdvisor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TripAdvisor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 2.89 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
13.23 | 13.23 | 0.00 |
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TripAdvisor Hype Timeline
TripAdvisor is at this time traded for 13.23. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.05. TripAdvisor is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on TripAdvisor is about 1993.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.18. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of TripAdvisor was at this time reported as 6.05. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.05. TripAdvisor last dividend was issued on the 19th of November 2019. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TripAdvisor to cross-verify your projections.TripAdvisor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TripAdvisor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TripAdvisor's future price movements. Getting to know how TripAdvisor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TripAdvisor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MCW | Mister Car Wash | (0.47) | 6 per month | 1.73 | 0.08 | 4.13 | (2.93) | 13.47 | |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide | 0.11 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.02 | (6.28) | 24.27 | |
| SHCO | Soho House Co | 0.11 | 20 per month | 1.62 | (0.03) | 1.13 | (1.36) | 12.23 | |
| DFH | Dream Finders Homes | (0.47) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.95 | (3.60) | 14.94 | |
| AIN | Albany International | 0.11 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.53 | (3.73) | 10.65 | |
| OI | O I Glass | 0.11 | 22 per month | 1.75 | 0.13 | 4.16 | (3.38) | 18.50 | |
| KSS | Kohls | 0.11 | 3 per month | 3.29 | 0.04 | 5.38 | (5.71) | 49.53 | |
| UAA | Under Armour A | 0.11 | 9 per month | 2.08 | 0.14 | 4.98 | (3.86) | 13.53 | |
| CCS | Century Communities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.99 | 0 | 6.80 | (3.74) | 13.29 | |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino Resort | (1.17) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.59 | (2.00) | 5.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for TripAdvisor
For every potential investor in TripAdvisor, whether a beginner or expert, TripAdvisor's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TripAdvisor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TripAdvisor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TripAdvisor's price trends.TripAdvisor Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TripAdvisor stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TripAdvisor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TripAdvisor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TripAdvisor Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TripAdvisor stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TripAdvisor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TripAdvisor stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TripAdvisor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 77449.05 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.79) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.36 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.31 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.31) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.37) |
TripAdvisor Risk Indicators
The analysis of TripAdvisor's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TripAdvisor's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tripadvisor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Variance | 8.37 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TripAdvisor
The number of cover stories for TripAdvisor depends on current market conditions and TripAdvisor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TripAdvisor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TripAdvisor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TripAdvisor Short Properties
TripAdvisor's future price predictability will typically decrease when TripAdvisor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TripAdvisor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TripAdvisor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TripAdvisor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Additional Tools for TripAdvisor Stock Analysis
When running TripAdvisor's price analysis, check to measure TripAdvisor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TripAdvisor is operating at the current time. Most of TripAdvisor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TripAdvisor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TripAdvisor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TripAdvisor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.