Trimble Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TRMB Stock | USD 66.87 1.36 1.99% |
Trimble Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Trimble stock prices and determine the direction of Trimble's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Trimble's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Trimble's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 19
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Trimble hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trimble from the perspective of Trimble response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trimble on the next trading day is expected to be 66.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.62. Trimble after-hype prediction price | USD 65.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trimble to cross-verify your projections. Trimble Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trimble price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trimble using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trimble charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trimble Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trimble on the next trading day is expected to be 66.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09, mean absolute percentage error of 2.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trimble Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trimble's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trimble Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trimble | Trimble Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Trimble Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trimble's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trimble's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.86 and 68.88, respectively. We have considered Trimble's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trimble stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trimble stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0742 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.256 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0937 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 65.62 |
Predictive Modules for Trimble
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trimble. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trimble After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trimble at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trimble or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trimble, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trimble Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trimble's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trimble's historical news coverage. Trimble's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.71 and 67.73, respectively. We have considered Trimble's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trimble is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trimble is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trimble Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trimble is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trimble backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trimble, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 2.01 | 0.36 | 0.12 | 23 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 23 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
66.87 | 65.72 | 1.72 |
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Trimble Hype Timeline
Trimble is at this time traded for 66.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.36, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Trimble is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 65.72. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 171.79%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.72%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Trimble is about 536.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 66.99. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Trimble was at this time reported as 24.58. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.84. Trimble had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 2:1 split on the 21st of March 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 23 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trimble to cross-verify your projections.Trimble Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trimble's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trimble's future price movements. Getting to know how Trimble's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trimble may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FTV | Fortive Corp | (0.53) | 9 per month | 1.79 | 0.05 | 2.68 | (2.92) | 15.82 | |
| FN | Fabrinet | 43.99 | 11 per month | 4.11 | 0.12 | 6.29 | (7.09) | 22.54 | |
| J | Jacobs Solutions | 3.44 | 8 per month | 2.00 | 0.02 | 3.54 | (2.90) | 15.45 | |
| TYL | Tyler Technologies | 3.25 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.50 | (5.90) | 19.29 | |
| COHR | Coherent | (11.16) | 10 per month | 3.50 | 0.23 | 6.75 | (6.63) | 18.97 | |
| GDDY | Godaddy | 1.54 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.24 | (4.48) | 19.45 | |
| IT | Gartner | 3.07 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.22 | (5.70) | 26.20 | |
| JBL | Jabil Circuit | (9.04) | 11 per month | 2.44 | 0.16 | 4.42 | (3.89) | 12.47 | |
| NTNX | Nutanix | (2.67) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.98 | (6.02) | 18.96 | |
| CPAY | Corpay Inc | (28.14) | 9 per month | 2.30 | 0.05 | 4.46 | (4.15) | 18.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trimble
For every potential investor in Trimble, whether a beginner or expert, Trimble's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trimble Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trimble. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trimble's price trends.Trimble Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trimble stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trimble could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trimble by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trimble Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trimble stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trimble shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trimble stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trimble entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trimble Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trimble's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trimble's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trimble stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trimble
The number of cover stories for Trimble depends on current market conditions and Trimble's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trimble is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trimble's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Trimble Short Properties
Trimble's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trimble's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trimble often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trimble's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trimble's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 239.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 253.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trimble to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Trimble Stock refer to our How to Trade Trimble Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trimble. If investors know Trimble will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Trimble assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Trimble's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Trimble's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Trimble's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Since Trimble's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trimble's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trimble is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trimble's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.