TPG RE Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TRTX Stock | USD 9.25 0.14 1.54% |
TPG Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The RSI of TPG RE's stock price is slightly above 60. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling TPG, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.26 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9817 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.11 | Wall Street Target Price 10.4 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.255 |
Using TPG RE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TPG RE Finance from the perspective of TPG RE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards TPG RE using TPG RE's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards TPG using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of TPG RE's stock price.
TPG RE Short Interest
An investor who is long TPG RE may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about TPG RE and may potentially protect profits, hedge TPG RE with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.5187 | Short Percent 0.0528 | Short Ratio 4.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.1 M | 50 Day MA 8.9912 |
TPG Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TPG RE Finance on the next trading day is expected to be 9.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78.TPG RE Finance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to TPG RE's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TPG. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TPG can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TPG RE Finance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of TPG RE's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about TPG RE.
TPG RE Implied Volatility | 0.75 |
TPG RE's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of TPG RE Finance stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if TPG RE's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that TPG RE stock will not fluctuate a lot when TPG RE's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TPG RE Finance on the next trading day is expected to be 9.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78. TPG RE after-hype prediction price | USD 9.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TPG RE to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current TPG contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that TPG RE Finance will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0469% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With TPG RE trading at USD 9.25, that is roughly USD 0.004336 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating TPG RE's daily price movement you should consider acquiring TPG RE Finance options at the current volatility level of 0.75%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 TPG Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast TPG RE's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in TPG RE's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for TPG RE stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current TPG RE's open interest, investors have to compare it to TPG RE's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of TPG RE is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in TPG. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
TPG RE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TPG price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TPG using various technical indicators. When you analyze TPG charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the TPG RE's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2015-12-31 | Previous Quarter 165.8 M | Current Value 93.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 110.2 M |
TPG RE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of TPG RE Finance on the next trading day is expected to be 9.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TPG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TPG RE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TPG RE Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TPG RE | TPG RE Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
TPG RE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TPG RE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TPG RE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.15 and 10.37, respectively. We have considered TPG RE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TPG RE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TPG RE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5883 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0933 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.7828 |
Predictive Modules for TPG RE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TPG RE Finance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TPG RE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TPG RE After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TPG RE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TPG RE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TPG RE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TPG RE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TPG RE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TPG RE's historical news coverage. TPG RE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.14 and 10.36, respectively. We have considered TPG RE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TPG RE is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TPG RE Finance is based on 3 months time horizon.
TPG RE Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TPG RE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TPG RE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TPG RE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.11 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 24 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 24 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.25 | 9.25 | 0.00 |
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TPG RE Hype Timeline
TPG RE Finance is at this time traded for 9.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. TPG is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on TPG RE is about 99900.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.25. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.65. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. TPG RE Finance has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.43. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 24 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TPG RE to cross-verify your projections.TPG RE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TPG RE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TPG RE's future price movements. Getting to know how TPG RE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TPG RE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MITT | AG Mortgage Investment | 0.07 | 10 per month | 0.86 | 0.18 | 2.80 | (1.66) | 10.23 | |
| RC | Ready Capital Corp | 0.02 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.19 | (4.92) | 14.40 | |
| RWT | Redwood Trust | 0.07 | 3 per month | 1.46 | 0.03 | 3.26 | (2.72) | 8.72 | |
| FBRT | Franklin BSP Realty | 0.07 | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.09 | (1.56) | 4.88 | |
| ADAM | New York Mortgage | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.52 | 0.16 | 3.31 | (1.90) | 9.42 | |
| CTO | CTO Realty Growth | (0.32) | 10 per month | 0.95 | 0.06 | 1.73 | (1.72) | 4.98 | |
| BRSP | Brightspire Capital | 0.07 | 3 per month | 0.63 | 0.15 | 2.26 | (1.54) | 4.36 | |
| IVR | Invesco Mortgage Capital | 0.02 | 4 per month | 0.76 | 0.21 | 2.36 | (1.76) | 8.01 | |
| WSR | Whitestone REIT | 0.02 | 4 per month | 0.86 | 0.10 | 1.91 | (1.72) | 10.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for TPG RE
For every potential investor in TPG, whether a beginner or expert, TPG RE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TPG Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TPG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TPG RE's price trends.TPG RE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TPG RE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TPG RE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TPG RE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TPG RE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TPG RE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TPG RE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TPG RE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TPG RE Finance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TPG RE Risk Indicators
The analysis of TPG RE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TPG RE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tpg stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8525 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Variance | 1.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TPG RE
The number of cover stories for TPG RE depends on current market conditions and TPG RE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TPG RE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TPG RE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TPG RE Short Properties
TPG RE's future price predictability will typically decrease when TPG RE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TPG RE Finance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TPG RE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TPG RE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 190.2 M |
Additional Tools for TPG Stock Analysis
When running TPG RE's price analysis, check to measure TPG RE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TPG RE is operating at the current time. Most of TPG RE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TPG RE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TPG RE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TPG RE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.