Trevena Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TRVN Stock | USD 0.01 0.00 0.00% |
Trevena Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Trevena's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Trevena's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Trevena fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Trevena's share price is approaching 48. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Trevena, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (7.37) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.90) | Wall Street Target Price 5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (7.32) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.572 |
Using Trevena hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trevena from the perspective of Trevena response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trevena on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0002 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.01. Trevena after-hype prediction price | USD 0.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trevena to cross-verify your projections. Trevena Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trevena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trevena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trevena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trevena Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trevena on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0002, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000202, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trevena Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trevena's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trevena Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trevena | Trevena Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Trevena Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trevena's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trevena's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0001 and 129.85, respectively. We have considered Trevena's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trevena stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trevena stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 103.1586 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0E-4 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1833 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.011 |
Predictive Modules for Trevena
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trevena. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trevena's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trevena After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trevena at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trevena or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trevena, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trevena Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trevena's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trevena's historical news coverage. Trevena's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 50.56, respectively. We have considered Trevena's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trevena is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trevena is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trevena Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trevena is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trevena backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trevena, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
15.14 | 129.84 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 5 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.01 | 0.01 | 9.09 |
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Trevena Hype Timeline
Trevena is at this time traded for 0.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Trevena is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -9.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 15.14%. The volatility of related hype on Trevena is about 1.180363636E7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.03. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.36. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Trevena recorded a loss per share of 48.89. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:25 split on the 13th of August 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trevena to cross-verify your projections.Trevena Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trevena's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trevena's future price movements. Getting to know how Trevena's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trevena may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EVLO | Evelo Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | (20.00) | 460.00 | |
| INFIQ | Infinity Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| VAXX | Vaxxinity | 0.01 | 3 per month | 121.64 | 0.31 | 14,900 | (99.00) | 15,000 | |
| PXMD | PaxMedica Common Stock | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4,998 | |
| ARDS | Aridis Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 36.74 | 0.33 | 1,000.00 | (90.48) | 1,141 | |
| LIFS | Life Stem Genetics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| OZYMF | Orphazyme AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HLUN | HEALTHeUNIVERSE | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NNLX | Nanologix | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ICCT | iCoreConnect Common stock | 0.00 | 0 per month | 29.44 | 0.19 | 100.00 | (66.67) | 522.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trevena
For every potential investor in Trevena, whether a beginner or expert, Trevena's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trevena Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trevena. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trevena's price trends.Trevena Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trevena stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trevena could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trevena by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trevena Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trevena stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trevena shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trevena stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trevena entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trevena Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trevena's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trevena's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trevena stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 29.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 123.78 | |||
| Variance | 15321.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trevena
The number of cover stories for Trevena depends on current market conditions and Trevena's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trevena is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trevena's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Trevena Short Properties
Trevena's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trevena's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trevena often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trevena's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trevena's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trevena to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Trevena Stock, please use our How to Invest in Trevena guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Trevena diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trevena. If investors know Trevena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Trevena data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (48.89) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.572 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Trevena requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Trevena's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Trevena's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Trevena's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trevena's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trevena is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Trevena's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.