URW EO Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

UBLB Stock  EUR 3.72  0.04  1.06%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of URW EO 05 on the next trading day is expected to be 3.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.86. URW Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of URW EO's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for URW EO works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

URW EO Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of URW EO 05 on the next trading day is expected to be 3.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict URW Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that URW EO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

URW EO Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest URW EOURW EO Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

URW EO Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting URW EO's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. URW EO's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.01 and 5.45, respectively. We have considered URW EO's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.72
3.73
Expected Value
5.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of URW EO stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent URW EO stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0068
MADMean absolute deviation0.0485
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors2.8617
When URW EO 05 prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any URW EO 05 trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent URW EO observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for URW EO

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as URW EO 05. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.003.725.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.403.124.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as URW EO. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against URW EO's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, URW EO's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in URW EO 05.

Other Forecasting Options for URW EO

For every potential investor in URW, whether a beginner or expert, URW EO's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. URW Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in URW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying URW EO's price trends.

URW EO Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with URW EO stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of URW EO could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing URW EO by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

URW EO 05 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of URW EO's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of URW EO's current price.

URW EO Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how URW EO stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading URW EO shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying URW EO stock market strength indicators, traders can identify URW EO 05 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

URW EO Risk Indicators

The analysis of URW EO's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in URW EO's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting urw stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in URW Stock

URW EO financial ratios help investors to determine whether URW Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in URW with respect to the benefits of owning URW EO security.