UFP Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| UFPT Stock | USD 314.41 3.14 1.01% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of UFP Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 274.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 963.40. UFP Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
UFP |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the UFP Technologies' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1991-12-31 | Previous Quarter 16.7 M | Current Value 16.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 13 M |
UFP Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of UFP Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 274.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.79, mean absolute percentage error of 364.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 963.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UFP Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UFP Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UFP Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
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UFP Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UFP Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UFP Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 270.17 and 277.95, respectively. We have considered UFP Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UFP Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UFP Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.008 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 15.7935 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0512 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 963.4036 |
Predictive Modules for UFP Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UFP Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for UFP Technologies
For every potential investor in UFP, whether a beginner or expert, UFP Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UFP Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UFP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UFP Technologies' price trends.View UFP Technologies Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UFP Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UFP Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UFP Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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UFP Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UFP Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UFP Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UFP Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UFP Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
UFP Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of UFP Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UFP Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ufp stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.88 | |||
| Variance | 15.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.12 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.72) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for UFP Stock Analysis
When running UFP Technologies' price analysis, check to measure UFP Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UFP Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of UFP Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UFP Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UFP Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UFP Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.