United Guardian Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| UG Stock | USD 7.21 0.03 0.41% |
United Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of United Guardian's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of United Guardian's stock price is roughly 64. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 2nd of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling United, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) |
Using United Guardian hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Guardian from the perspective of United Guardian response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Guardian on the next trading day is expected to be 7.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.09. United Guardian after-hype prediction price | USD 7.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Guardian to cross-verify your projections. United Guardian Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
United Guardian Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Guardian on the next trading day is expected to be 7.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Guardian's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
United Guardian Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Guardian | United Guardian Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
United Guardian Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting United Guardian's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Guardian's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.20 and 9.43, respectively. We have considered United Guardian's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Guardian stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Guardian stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0232 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0863 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0137 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.0895 |
Predictive Modules for United Guardian
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Guardian. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.United Guardian After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of United Guardian at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United Guardian or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of United Guardian, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
United Guardian Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting United Guardian's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United Guardian's historical news coverage. United Guardian's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.11 and 9.31, respectively. We have considered United Guardian's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
United Guardian is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Guardian is based on 3 months time horizon.
United Guardian Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as United Guardian is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Guardian backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United Guardian, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.12 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 5 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.21 | 7.21 | 0.00 |
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United Guardian Hype Timeline
As of February 2, 2026 United Guardian is listed for 7.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. United is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on United Guardian is about 1482.52%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.20. About 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The book value of United Guardian was at this time reported as 2.3. The company last dividend was issued on the 25th of July 2025. United Guardian had 6:5 split on the 12th of September 1985. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Guardian to cross-verify your projections.United Guardian Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to United Guardian's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United Guardian's future price movements. Getting to know how United Guardian's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United Guardian may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DSY | Big Tree Cloud | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.33) | 4.44 | (9.68) | 20.49 | |
| JZ | Jianzhi Education Technology | (0.22) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 4.38 | (8.59) | 34.43 | |
| IH | Ihuman Inc | (0.60) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 5.19 | (5.26) | 13.22 | |
| COOT | Australian Oilseeds Holdings | (0.40) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 8.40 | (10.53) | 34.28 | |
| BNKK | Bonk Inc | (0.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 21.61 | (20.46) | 62.91 | |
| BOF | BranchOut Food Common | (0.11) | 6 per month | 4.10 | 0.05 | 9.35 | (7.06) | 19.04 | |
| JVA | Coffee Holding Co | (0.26) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.87 | (4.94) | 26.85 | |
| NCRA | Nocera Inc | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 14.53 | (11.76) | 43.98 | |
| MTEX | Mannatech Incorporated | 0.34 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.11 | (5.75) | 36.78 | |
| FARM | Farmer Bros Co | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.05 | (4.35) | 18.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for United Guardian
For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Guardian's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Guardian's price trends.United Guardian Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Guardian stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Guardian could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Guardian by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Guardian Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Guardian stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Guardian shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Guardian stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Guardian entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
United Guardian Risk Indicators
The analysis of United Guardian's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Guardian's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Variance | 4.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.88 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for United Guardian
The number of cover stories for United Guardian depends on current market conditions and United Guardian's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United Guardian is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United Guardian's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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United Guardian Short Properties
United Guardian's future price predictability will typically decrease when United Guardian's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of United Guardian often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential United Guardian's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Guardian's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Guardian to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in United Stock please use our How to Invest in United Guardian guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Can Personal Care Products industry sustain growth momentum? Does United have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Guardian. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating United Guardian demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 0.43 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) |
Investors evaluate United Guardian using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating United Guardian's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause United Guardian's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Guardian's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Guardian is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, United Guardian's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.