United National Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

UNBK Stock  USD 56.51  0.01  0.02%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of United National Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 56.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.82. United Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of United National's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of United National's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with United National Bank, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using United National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United National Bank from the perspective of United National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of United National Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 56.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.82.

United National after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 56.51  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United National to cross-verify your projections.

United National Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for United National is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of United National Bank value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

United National Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of United National Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 56.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

United National Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest United NationalUnited National Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

United National Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting United National's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.80 and 56.74, respectively. We have considered United National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
56.51
56.27
Expected Value
56.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United National pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United National pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0204
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.243
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0042
SAESum of the absolute errors14.8243
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of United National Bank. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict United National. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for United National

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United National Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
56.0456.5156.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.3045.7762.16
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
55.9156.8857.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as United National. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against United National's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, United National's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in United National Bank.

United National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of United National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of United National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

United National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting United National's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United National's historical news coverage. United National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.04 and 56.98, respectively. We have considered United National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
56.51
56.51
After-hype Price
56.98
Upside
United National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United National Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.

United National Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as United National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
0.47
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
56.51
56.51
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

United National Hype Timeline

United National Bank is at this time traded for 56.51. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. United is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on United National is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.51. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United National to cross-verify your projections.

United National Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to United National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United National's future price movements. Getting to know how United National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
EQFNEquitable Financial Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.78 (0.01) 2.18 (1.93) 8.23 
FBVIFCN Banc Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.69 (0.04) 1.47 (1.29) 6.89 
HBSIHighlands Bankshares 0.00 0 per month 0.86  0.10  3.49 (0.58) 14.85 
PVBKPacific Valley Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.54 (0.07) 1.42 (1.11) 5.47 
NIDBNortheast Indiana Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.95  0.02  1.94 (1.83) 7.18 
CBAFCitba Financial Corp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.25  2.47 (0.64) 6.30 
FMFGFarmers and Merchants 0.00 0 per month 0.95  0.05  2.09 (1.73) 7.57 
MVLYMission Valley Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.04  2.87 (0.33) 17.19 
CEFCCommercial National Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.14  2.41 (1.06) 5.36 
CCBCChino Commercial Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.01) 2.15 (0.18) 6.87 

Other Forecasting Options for United National

For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United National's price trends.

United National Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United National pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

United National Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United National pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United National pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify United National Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

United National Risk Indicators

The analysis of United National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for United National

The number of cover stories for United National depends on current market conditions and United National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in United Pink Sheet

United National financial ratios help investors to determine whether United Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in United with respect to the benefits of owning United National security.