Griffon Forecast - Simple Regression

398433AP7   97.00  1.44  1.46%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Griffon 575 on the next trading day is expected to be 97.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.68. Griffon Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Griffon stock prices and determine the direction of Griffon 575's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Griffon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Griffon price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Griffon Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Griffon 575 on the next trading day is expected to be 97.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Griffon Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Griffon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Griffon Bond Forecast Pattern

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Griffon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Griffon's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Griffon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97.21 and 98.69, respectively. We have considered Griffon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
97.00
97.95
Expected Value
98.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Griffon bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Griffon bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5145
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.511
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0052
SAESum of the absolute errors31.6846
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Griffon 575 historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Griffon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Griffon 575. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
96.4197.0097.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
96.2696.8497.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
92.3895.7999.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Griffon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Griffon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Griffon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Griffon 575.

Other Forecasting Options for Griffon

For every potential investor in Griffon, whether a beginner or expert, Griffon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Griffon Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Griffon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Griffon's price trends.

Griffon Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Griffon bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Griffon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Griffon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Griffon 575 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Griffon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Griffon's current price.

Griffon Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Griffon bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Griffon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Griffon bond market strength indicators, traders can identify Griffon 575 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Griffon Risk Indicators

The analysis of Griffon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Griffon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting griffon bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of Griffon 575 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Griffon Bond

Griffon financial ratios help investors to determine whether Griffon Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Griffon with respect to the benefits of owning Griffon security.