64828TAA0 Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 64828TAA0 | 93.62 6.38 6.38% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NEW RESIDENTIAL INVT on the next trading day is expected to be 94.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.13. 64828TAA0 Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 64828TAA0 stock prices and determine the direction of NEW RESIDENTIAL INVT's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 64828TAA0's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
64828TAA0 |
64828TAA0 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NEW RESIDENTIAL INVT on the next trading day is expected to be 94.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10, mean absolute percentage error of 3.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 64828TAA0 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 64828TAA0's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
64828TAA0 Bond Forecast Pattern
| Backtest 64828TAA0 | 64828TAA0 Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
64828TAA0 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 64828TAA0's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 64828TAA0's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 92.66 and 95.95, respectively. We have considered 64828TAA0's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 64828TAA0 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 64828TAA0 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.214 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0989 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 68.1289 |
Predictive Modules for 64828TAA0
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NEW RESIDENTIAL INVT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for 64828TAA0
For every potential investor in 64828TAA0, whether a beginner or expert, 64828TAA0's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 64828TAA0 Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 64828TAA0. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 64828TAA0's price trends.64828TAA0 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 64828TAA0 bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 64828TAA0 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 64828TAA0 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NEW RESIDENTIAL INVT Technical and Predictive Analytics
The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 64828TAA0's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 64828TAA0's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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64828TAA0 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 64828TAA0 bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 64828TAA0 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 64828TAA0 bond market strength indicators, traders can identify NEW RESIDENTIAL INVT entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 93.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 93.62 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.19) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (6.38) |
64828TAA0 Risk Indicators
The analysis of 64828TAA0's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 64828TAA0's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 64828taa0 bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of NEW RESIDENTIAL INVT bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8179 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in 64828TAA0 Bond
64828TAA0 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 64828TAA0 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 64828TAA0 with respect to the benefits of owning 64828TAA0 security.