693475BA2 Forecast - Simple Regression

693475BA2   78.17  12.77  14.04%   
693475BA2 Bond outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 693475BA2 stock prices and determine the direction of PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of 693475BA2's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength indicator of 693475BA2's share price is at 50. This usually implies that the bond is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling 693475BA2, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 50

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of 693475BA2's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using 693475BA2 hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES from the perspective of 693475BA2 response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES on the next trading day is expected to be 82.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 154.38.

693475BA2 after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 78.17  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as bond price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 693475BA2 to cross-verify your projections.

693475BA2 Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine 693475BA2 price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 693475BA2 using various technical indicators. When you analyze 693475BA2 charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through 693475BA2 price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

693475BA2 Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES on the next trading day is expected to be 82.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.49, mean absolute percentage error of 9.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 154.38.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 693475BA2 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 693475BA2's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

693475BA2 Bond Forecast Pattern

Backtest 693475BA2  693475BA2 Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

693475BA2 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting 693475BA2's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 693475BA2's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.96 and 84.58, respectively. We have considered 693475BA2's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
78.17
82.77
Expected Value
84.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 693475BA2 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 693475BA2 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.1757
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.49
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0289
SAESum of the absolute errors154.3778
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for 693475BA2

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
76.3378.1780.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
66.5568.3985.99
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
-54.7484.1191.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 693475BA2. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 693475BA2's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 693475BA2's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES.

693475BA2 After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of 693475BA2 at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 693475BA2 or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Bond prices, such as prices of 693475BA2, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

693475BA2 Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting 693475BA2's bond value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on 693475BA2's historical news coverage. 693475BA2's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 76.33 and 80.01, respectively. We have considered 693475BA2's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
78.17
78.17
After-hype Price
80.01
Upside
693475BA2 is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES is based on 3 months time horizon.

693475BA2 Bond Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Corporate Bond such as 693475BA2 is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 693475BA2 backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Bond price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 693475BA2, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.21 
1.81
 0.00  
  0.02 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
78.17
78.17
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

693475BA2 Hype Timeline

PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES is at this time traded for 78.17. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. 693475BA2 is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on 693475BA2 is about 1645.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 78.15. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 693475BA2 to cross-verify your projections.

693475BA2 Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to 693475BA2's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 693475BA2's future price movements. Getting to know how 693475BA2's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 693475BA2 may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for 693475BA2

For every potential investor in 693475BA2, whether a beginner or expert, 693475BA2's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 693475BA2 Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 693475BA2. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 693475BA2's price trends.

693475BA2 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 693475BA2 bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 693475BA2 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 693475BA2 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

693475BA2 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 693475BA2 bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 693475BA2 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 693475BA2 bond market strength indicators, traders can identify PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

693475BA2 Risk Indicators

The analysis of 693475BA2's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 693475BA2's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 693475ba2 bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for 693475BA2

The number of cover stories for 693475BA2 depends on current market conditions and 693475BA2's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that 693475BA2 is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about 693475BA2's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in 693475BA2 Bond

693475BA2 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 693475BA2 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 693475BA2 with respect to the benefits of owning 693475BA2 security.