Pacer American Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| USAI Etf | USD 41.00 0.52 1.28% |
Pacer Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pacer American's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Pacer American's etf price is under 68. This usually implies that the etf is rather overbought by investors as of 28th of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pacer, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Pacer American hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pacer American Energy from the perspective of Pacer American response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Pacer American using Pacer American's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Pacer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Pacer American's stock price.
Pacer American Implied Volatility | 0.5 |
Pacer American's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Pacer American Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Pacer American's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Pacer American stock will not fluctuate a lot when Pacer American's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pacer American Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 41.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.31. Pacer American after-hype prediction price | USD 40.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pacer American to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Pacer contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Pacer American Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0313% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Pacer American trading at USD 41.0, that is roughly USD 0.0128 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Pacer American's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Pacer American Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.5%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Pacer Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Pacer American's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Pacer American's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Pacer American stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Pacer American's open interest, investors have to compare it to Pacer American's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Pacer American is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Pacer. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Pacer American Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pacer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pacer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pacer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pacer American Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pacer American Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 41.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pacer Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pacer American's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pacer American Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pacer American | Pacer American Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pacer American Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pacer American's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pacer American's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.59 and 42.43, respectively. We have considered Pacer American's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pacer American etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pacer American etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1642 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3165 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0084 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.3082 |
Predictive Modules for Pacer American
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pacer American Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pacer American After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pacer American at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pacer American or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Pacer American, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pacer American Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pacer American's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pacer American's historical news coverage. Pacer American's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.05 and 41.89, respectively. We have considered Pacer American's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pacer American is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pacer American Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pacer American Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Pacer American is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pacer American backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pacer American, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 0.92 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.00 | 40.97 | 0.07 |
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Pacer American Hype Timeline
Pacer American Energy is at this time traded for 41.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Pacer is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 40.97. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Pacer American is about 1164.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.02. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pacer American to cross-verify your projections.Pacer American Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pacer American's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pacer American's future price movements. Getting to know how Pacer American's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pacer American may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BUL | Pacer Cash Cows | 0.12 | 5 per month | 0.83 | 0.04 | 1.66 | (1.57) | 3.87 | |
| BLUI | Exchange Traded Concepts | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.28 | (0.24) | 0.82 | |
| KWT | iShares MSCI Kuwait | 0.25 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.04 | (1.14) | 8.55 | |
| REVS | Columbia Research Enhanced | 0.19 | 5 per month | 0.55 | 0.05 | 1.32 | (1.17) | 2.75 | |
| PSL | Invesco DWA Consumer | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.84 | (0) | 1.17 | (1.15) | 4.26 | |
| HERD | Pacer Cash Cows | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.49 | 0.1 | 1.30 | (0.91) | 2.90 | |
| FEUZ | First Trust Eurozone | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.57 | 0.15 | 1.33 | (1.14) | 3.42 | |
| XC | WisdomTree Emerging Markets | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.34 | 0.07 | 1.07 | (0.75) | 2.02 | |
| RFDA | RiverFront Dynamic Dividend | 0.19 | 6 per month | 0.65 | (0.05) | 0.91 | (1.23) | 3.65 | |
| IQDY | FlexShares International Quality | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.48 | 0.17 | 1.32 | (1.11) | 2.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pacer American
For every potential investor in Pacer, whether a beginner or expert, Pacer American's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pacer Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pacer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pacer American's price trends.Pacer American Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pacer American etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pacer American could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pacer American by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pacer American Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pacer American etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pacer American shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pacer American etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Pacer American Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pacer American Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pacer American's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pacer American's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pacer etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7299 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7283 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9102 | |||
| Variance | 0.8284 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8298 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5304 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pacer American
The number of cover stories for Pacer American depends on current market conditions and Pacer American's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pacer American is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pacer American's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pacer American to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
The market value of Pacer American Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pacer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pacer American's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pacer American's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Pacer American's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pacer American's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pacer American's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pacer American is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Pacer American's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.