Universal Stainless Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

USAP Stock  USD 44.27  0.10  0.23%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Universal Stainless Alloy on the next trading day is expected to be 45.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.61. Universal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Universal Stainless' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Universal Stainless' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Universal Stainless fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Universal Stainless' Inventory Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 11/22/2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 10.90, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 5.58. . As of 11/22/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 7.6 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (6.9 M).
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Universal Stainless price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Universal Stainless Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Universal Stainless Alloy on the next trading day is expected to be 45.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 2.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal Stainless' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Universal Stainless Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Universal StainlessUniversal Stainless Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Universal Stainless Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Universal Stainless' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal Stainless' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.77 and 48.10, respectively. We have considered Universal Stainless' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
44.27
45.44
Expected Value
48.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal Stainless stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal Stainless stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.951
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1411
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0282
SAESum of the absolute errors69.6061
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Universal Stainless Alloy historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Universal Stainless

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Stainless Alloy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
41.4944.1546.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.7829.4448.59
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
43.5543.9644.36
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
15.4717.0018.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Universal Stainless. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Universal Stainless' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Universal Stainless' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Universal Stainless Alloy.

Other Forecasting Options for Universal Stainless

For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal Stainless' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal Stainless' price trends.

Universal Stainless Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal Stainless stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal Stainless could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal Stainless by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Universal Stainless Alloy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Universal Stainless' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Universal Stainless' current price.

Universal Stainless Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal Stainless stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal Stainless shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal Stainless stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal Stainless Alloy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Universal Stainless Risk Indicators

The analysis of Universal Stainless' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Stainless' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Universal Stainless

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Universal Stainless position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Universal Stainless will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Universal Stock

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  0.78AA Alcoa Corp Fiscal Year End 15th of January 2025 PairCorr
  0.74RS Reliance Steel AluminumPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Universal Stainless could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Universal Stainless when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Universal Stainless - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Universal Stainless Alloy to buy it.
The correlation of Universal Stainless is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Universal Stainless moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Universal Stainless Alloy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Universal Stainless can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Universal Stock Analysis

When running Universal Stainless' price analysis, check to measure Universal Stainless' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Stainless is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Stainless' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Stainless' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Stainless' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Stainless to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.