Americas Silver Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| USAS Stock | USD 8.48 1.35 18.93% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Americas Silver Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.37. Americas Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Americas Silver's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually implies that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Americas, making its price go up or down. Momentum 75
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Americas Silver hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Americas Silver Corp from the perspective of Americas Silver response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Americas Silver Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.37. Americas Silver after-hype prediction price | USD 8.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Americas Silver to cross-verify your projections. Americas Silver Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Americas price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Americas using various technical indicators. When you analyze Americas charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Americas Silver Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Americas Silver Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Americas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Americas Silver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Americas Silver Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Americas Silver | Americas Silver Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Americas Silver Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Americas Silver's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Americas Silver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.74 and 12.14, respectively. We have considered Americas Silver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Americas Silver stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Americas Silver stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4965 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3504 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0689 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.3743 |
Predictive Modules for Americas Silver
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Americas Silver Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Americas Silver After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Americas Silver at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Americas Silver or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Americas Silver, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Americas Silver Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Americas Silver's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Americas Silver's historical news coverage. Americas Silver's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.28 and 13.68, respectively. We have considered Americas Silver's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Americas Silver is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Americas Silver Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Americas Silver Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Americas Silver is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Americas Silver backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Americas Silver, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.36 | 5.20 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.48 | 8.48 | 0.00 |
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Americas Silver Hype Timeline
Americas Silver Corp is at this time traded for 8.48. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Americas is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on Americas Silver is about 15757.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.52. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.28. Americas Silver Corp last dividend was issued on the 28th of December 2016. The entity had 4:10 split on the 26th of August 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Americas Silver to cross-verify your projections.Americas Silver Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Americas Silver's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Americas Silver's future price movements. Getting to know how Americas Silver's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Americas Silver may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TMC | TMC the metals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.18 | 0.05 | 13.31 | (9.63) | 30.88 | |
| MTRN | Materion | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.73 | 0.04 | 3.42 | (2.20) | 14.55 | |
| SKE | Skeena Resources | (0.24) | 6 per month | 1.87 | 0.31 | 6.44 | (3.29) | 13.14 | |
| BCC | Boise Cascad Llc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.67 | 0.08 | 6.20 | (3.06) | 11.47 | |
| MEOH | Methanex | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.15 | 3.94 | (2.58) | 21.41 | |
| TGLS | Tecnoglass | 0.19 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.42 | (5.16) | 10.25 | |
| TTAM | Titan America SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.80 | 0.06 | 3.28 | (2.56) | 8.96 | |
| FSM | Fortuna Silver Mines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.82 | 0.18 | 4.51 | (3.55) | 14.17 | |
| WDFC | WD 40 Company | 0.19 | 3 per month | 1.97 | 0.01 | 2.39 | (2.98) | 10.75 | |
| HWKN | Hawkins | 0.19 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.29 | (4.40) | 10.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for Americas Silver
For every potential investor in Americas, whether a beginner or expert, Americas Silver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Americas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Americas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Americas Silver's price trends.Americas Silver Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Americas Silver stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Americas Silver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Americas Silver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Americas Silver Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Americas Silver stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Americas Silver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Americas Silver stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Americas Silver Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Americas Silver Risk Indicators
The analysis of Americas Silver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Americas Silver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting americas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.2 | |||
| Variance | 27.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 22.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.87) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Americas Silver
The number of cover stories for Americas Silver depends on current market conditions and Americas Silver's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Americas Silver is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Americas Silver's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Americas Silver Short Properties
Americas Silver's future price predictability will typically decrease when Americas Silver's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Americas Silver Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Americas Silver's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Americas Silver's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 106 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20 M |
Additional Tools for Americas Stock Analysis
When running Americas Silver's price analysis, check to measure Americas Silver's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Americas Silver is operating at the current time. Most of Americas Silver's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Americas Silver's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Americas Silver's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Americas Silver to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.