United States Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| USL Etf | USD 35.22 0.73 2.12% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of United States 12 on the next trading day is expected to be 35.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.33. United Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength momentum indicator of United States' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using United States hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United States 12 from the perspective of United States response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards United States using United States' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards United using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of United States' stock price.
United States Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
United States' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United States 12 stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United States' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United States stock will not fluctuate a lot when United States' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of United States 12 on the next trading day is expected to be 35.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.33. United States after-hype prediction price | USD 35.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United States to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current United contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that United States 12 will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With United States trading at USD 35.22, that is roughly USD 0.009025 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating United States' daily price movement you should consider acquiring United States 12 options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 United Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast United States' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in United States' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for United States stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current United States' open interest, investors have to compare it to United States' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of United States is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in United. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
United States Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
United States Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of United States 12 on the next trading day is expected to be 35.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United States' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
United States Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United States | United States Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
United States Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting United States' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United States' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.98 and 36.69, respectively. We have considered United States' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United States etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United States etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1541 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3278 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0097 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.3261 |
Predictive Modules for United States
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United States 12. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United States' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United States After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of United States at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United States or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of United States, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
United States Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting United States' etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United States' historical news coverage. United States' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.87 and 36.57, respectively. We have considered United States' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
United States is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United States 12 is based on 3 months time horizon.
United States Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as United States is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United States backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United States, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
35.22 | 35.22 | 0.00 |
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United States Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January United States 12 is traded for 35.22. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. United is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on United States is about 16875.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.22. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.83. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. United States 12 recorded a loss per share of 8.87. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United States to cross-verify your projections.United States Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to United States' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United States' future price movements. Getting to know how United States' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United States may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DBE | Invesco DB Energy | 0.06 | 1 per month | 1.38 | 0.04 | 2.52 | (2.03) | 5.48 | |
| FFLS | Northern Lights | 0.03 | 2 per month | 0.40 | (0.13) | 0.73 | (0.69) | 2.44 | |
| MOOD | Relative Sentiment Tactical | (0.25) | 4 per month | 0.56 | 0.15 | 1.60 | (1.41) | 3.44 | |
| PUSH | PGIM ETF Trust | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.91) | 0.10 | (0.06) | 0.64 | |
| FLLA | Franklin FTSE Latin | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.84 | 0.23 | 1.98 | (1.56) | 6.61 | |
| EVYM | Eaton Vance High | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.13 | (0.39) | 0.34 | (0.24) | 0.96 | |
| CSNR | Cohen Steers Natural | 0.27 | 1 per month | 0.95 | 0.16 | 1.59 | (1.58) | 4.45 | |
| HERZ | Herzfeld Creditome Fund | 0.06 | 2 per month | 1.37 | 0.13 | 4.76 | (2.53) | 38.81 | |
| CGGG | Capital Group Equity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.38 | (2.12) | 5.24 | |
| GABF | Gabelli Financial Services | (0.28) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.30 | (2.30) | 5.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for United States
For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United States' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United States' price trends.United States Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United States etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United States could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United States by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United States Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United States etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United States shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United States etf market strength indicators, traders can identify United States 12 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 32.94 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 3.173913 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.24 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.35 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.73 |
United States Risk Indicators
The analysis of United States' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United States' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.07) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for United States
The number of cover stories for United States depends on current market conditions and United States' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United States is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United States' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United States to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
The market value of United States 12 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United States' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United States' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United States' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United States' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United States' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United States is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United States' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.