Universal Security Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

UUU Stock  USD 4.49  0.33  7.93%   
Universal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Universal Security's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Universal Security's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Universal Security Instruments, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Universal Security's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.73)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.17)
Using Universal Security hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Universal Security Instruments from the perspective of Universal Security response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Universal Security Instruments on the next trading day is expected to be 5.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.71.

Universal Security after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 4.16  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Security to cross-verify your projections.

Universal Security Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Universal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Universal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Universal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Universal Security price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Universal Security Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Universal Security Instruments on the next trading day is expected to be 5.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal Security's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Universal Security Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Universal Security  Universal Security Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Universal Security Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Universal Security's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal Security's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 12.37, respectively. We have considered Universal Security's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.49
5.24
Expected Value
12.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal Security stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal Security stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4219
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.323
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0684
SAESum of the absolute errors19.7051
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Universal Security Instruments historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Universal Security

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Security. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal Security's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.214.1611.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.193.8410.97
Details

Universal Security After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Universal Security at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Universal Security or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Universal Security, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Universal Security Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Universal Security's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Universal Security's historical news coverage. Universal Security's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.21 and 11.29, respectively. We have considered Universal Security's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4.49
4.16
After-hype Price
11.29
Upside
Universal Security is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Universal Security is based on 3 months time horizon.

Universal Security Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Universal Security is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Universal Security backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Universal Security, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
7.13
 0.00  
  0.02 
11 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4.49
4.16
0.00 
35,650  
Notes

Universal Security Hype Timeline

On the 6th of February Universal Security is traded for 4.49. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Universal is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Universal Security is about 4600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.47. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The book value of Universal Security was at this time reported as 3.02. The company last dividend was issued on the 26th of September 2025. Universal Security had 4:3 split on the 17th of October 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Security to cross-verify your projections.

Universal Security Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Universal Security's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Universal Security's future price movements. Getting to know how Universal Security's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Universal Security may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
IPWiPower Inc(1.44)6 per month 0.00 (0.21) 10.45 (12.70) 35.96 
YJYunji Inc(0.05)6 per month 0.00 (0.05) 6.99 (7.45) 30.41 
REBNReborn Coffee 0.08 8 per month 0.00 (0.02) 11.95 (9.04) 27.14 
UCARU Power Limited(0.02)8 per month 0.00 (0.20) 4.64 (5.71) 19.82 
BYAHPark Ha Biological(0.01)4 per month 0.00 (0.22) 10.00 (11.36) 44.34 
AZIAutozi Internet Technology(0.07)10 per month 0.00 (0.03) 21.43 (17.65) 88.70 
CENNCenntro Electric Group(0.01)3 per month 0.00 (0.09) 13.33 (7.14) 24.81 
YYGHYY Group Holding(0.01)9 per month 0.00 (0.16) 7.69 (8.33) 19.09 
DSSDSS Inc 0.01 8 per month 0.00 (0.03) 12.77 (7.02) 50.17 
ATERAterian(0.03)9 per month 0.00 (0.11) 7.14 (7.46) 28.48 

Other Forecasting Options for Universal Security

For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal Security's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal Security's price trends.

Universal Security Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal Security stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal Security could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal Security by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Universal Security Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal Security stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal Security shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal Security stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal Security Instruments entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Universal Security Risk Indicators

The analysis of Universal Security's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Security's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Universal Security

The number of cover stories for Universal Security depends on current market conditions and Universal Security's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Universal Security is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Universal Security's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Universal Security Short Properties

Universal Security's future price predictability will typically decrease when Universal Security's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Universal Security Instruments often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Universal Security's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Universal Security's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments348.1 K

Additional Tools for Universal Stock Analysis

When running Universal Security's price analysis, check to measure Universal Security's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Security is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Security's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Security's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Security's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Security to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.