Universal Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| UVV Stock | EUR 45.54 0.44 0.98% |
Universal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Universal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of February 2026, the value of relative strength index of Universal's share price is approaching 40. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Universal, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.44) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
Using Universal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Universal from the perspective of Universal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Universal on the next trading day is expected to be 43.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.16. Universal after-hype prediction price | EUR 45.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Universal |
Universal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Universal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Universal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Universal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Universal Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Universal on the next trading day is expected to be 43.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Universal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Universal | Universal Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Universal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Universal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.87 and 45.58, respectively. We have considered Universal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4752 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.855 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0186 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.1576 |
Predictive Modules for Universal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Universal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Universal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Universal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Universal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Universal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Universal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Universal's historical news coverage. Universal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.26 and 46.96, respectively. We have considered Universal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Universal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Universal is based on 3 months time horizon.
Universal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Universal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Universal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Universal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.85 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
45.54 | 45.11 | 0.02 |
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Universal Hype Timeline
Universal is at this time traded for 45.54on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Universal is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 45.11 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Universal is about 422.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.53. The company reported the revenue of 2.95 B. Net Income was 95.05 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 544.53 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal to cross-verify your projections.Universal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Universal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Universal's future price movements. Getting to know how Universal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Universal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOZA | PT Bank Maybank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.01 | (0) | 5.00 | (5.00) | 18.90 | |
| T6W | Thai Beverage Public | 0.00 | 3 per month | 2.90 | 0.03 | 6.90 | (6.45) | 19.09 | |
| BAK | BANKINTER ADR 2007 | 0.00 | 4 per month | 1.49 | 0.06 | 2.92 | (2.86) | 7.80 | |
| A4S | Ameriprise Financial | (2.90) | 7 per month | 2.08 | (0.02) | 3.02 | (3.26) | 10.09 | |
| NB9 | National Bank Holdings | 0.20 | 9 per month | 1.69 | 0.04 | 3.66 | (2.35) | 11.17 | |
| CWW | Commonwealth Bank of | 0.07 | 8 per month | 0.86 | 0.17 | 3.15 | (1.72) | 8.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Universal
For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal's price trends.Universal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Universal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 45.54 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.54 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.22 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.44 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.58 |
Universal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Universal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.97) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Universal
The number of cover stories for Universal depends on current market conditions and Universal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Universal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Universal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Universal Stock please use our How to Invest in Universal guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.