Invesco California Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VCV Stock | USD 11.03 0.02 0.18% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Invesco California Value on the next trading day is expected to be 10.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.69. Invesco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Invesco California's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
Using Invesco California hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Invesco California Value from the perspective of Invesco California response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Invesco California Value on the next trading day is expected to be 10.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.69. Invesco California after-hype prediction price | USD 11.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco California to cross-verify your projections. Invesco California Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Invesco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Invesco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Invesco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Invesco California's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 7.9 M | Current Value 6 M | Quarterly Volatility 2 M |
Invesco California Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Invesco California Value on the next trading day is expected to be 10.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco California's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Invesco California Stock Forecast Pattern
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Invesco California Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Invesco California's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco California's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.11 and 11.78, respectively. We have considered Invesco California's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco California stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco California stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5408 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0768 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0071 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.6858 |
Predictive Modules for Invesco California
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco California Value. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Invesco California's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Invesco California After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Invesco California at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Invesco California or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Invesco California, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Invesco California Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Invesco California's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Invesco California's historical news coverage. Invesco California's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.76 and 12.42, respectively. We have considered Invesco California's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Invesco California is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Invesco California Value is based on 3 months time horizon.
Invesco California Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Invesco California is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Invesco California backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Invesco California, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.83 | 0.56 | 0.26 | 3 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.03 | 11.59 | 5.08 |
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Invesco California Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Invesco California Value is traded for 11.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.56, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.26. Invesco is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.59 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 8.96%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 5.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Invesco California is about 19.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.29. Invesco California Value has about 2.61 M in cash with 47.49 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.05. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco California to cross-verify your projections.Invesco California Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Invesco California's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Invesco California's future price movements. Getting to know how Invesco California's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Invesco California may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IQI | Invesco Quality Municipal | 10.09 | 1 per month | 0.26 | (0.12) | 0.72 | (0.61) | 1.71 | |
| VKQ | Invesco Municipal Trust | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.43 | (0.17) | 0.73 | (0.73) | 2.01 | |
| IIM | Invesco Value Municipal | 7.76 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 0.97 | (0.89) | 4.42 | |
| VGM | Invesco Trust For | 9.85 | 1 per month | 0.40 | (0.08) | 0.60 | (0.60) | 2.24 | |
| VVR | Invesco Senior Income | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.42 | 0.01 | 1.27 | (0.94) | 3.12 | |
| VKI | Invesco Advantage MIT | (0.06) | 1 per month | 0.46 | (0.07) | 0.99 | (0.91) | 2.55 | |
| VMO | Invesco Municipal Opportunity | 10.54 | 4 per month | 0.33 | (0.17) | 0.64 | (0.53) | 1.90 | |
| HRCVX | Eagle Growth Income | (2.81) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.03 | (1.13) | 16.71 | |
| HIGJX | Eagle Growth Income | 0.82 | 11 per month | 0.67 | (0.07) | 1.04 | (1.13) | 2.65 | |
| BLW | BlackRock Limited Duration | 6.56 | 1 per month | 0.22 | (0.13) | 0.45 | (0.52) | 1.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Invesco California
For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco California's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco California's price trends.Invesco California Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco California stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco California could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco California by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Invesco California Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Invesco California stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Invesco California shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Invesco California stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Invesco California Value entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Invesco California Risk Indicators
The analysis of Invesco California's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco California's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting invesco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5711 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7841 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8086 | |||
| Variance | 0.6538 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7997 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6148 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Invesco California
The number of cover stories for Invesco California depends on current market conditions and Invesco California's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Invesco California is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Invesco California's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Invesco California Short Properties
Invesco California's future price predictability will typically decrease when Invesco California's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Invesco California Value often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Invesco California's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Invesco California's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.3 M |
Additional Tools for Invesco Stock Analysis
When running Invesco California's price analysis, check to measure Invesco California's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Invesco California is operating at the current time. Most of Invesco California's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Invesco California's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Invesco California's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Invesco California to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.