Village Farms Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VFF Stock | USD 3.40 0.02 0.59% |
Village Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Village Farms' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 29th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Village Farms' share price is approaching 48. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Village Farms, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.02 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.13 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.21 | Wall Street Target Price 4.9167 |
Using Village Farms hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Village Farms International from the perspective of Village Farms response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Village Farms using Village Farms' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Village using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Village Farms' stock price.
Village Farms Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Village Farms' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Village. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Village Farms stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 2.3599 | Short Percent 0.0439 | Short Ratio 1.9 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.9 M | 50 Day MA 3.6512 |
Village Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Village Farms International on the next trading day is expected to be 3.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.13.Village Farms Intern Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Village Farms' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Village. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Village can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Village Farms International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Village Farms' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Village Farms.
Village Farms Implied Volatility | 1.45 |
Village Farms' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Village Farms International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Village Farms' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Village Farms stock will not fluctuate a lot when Village Farms' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Village Farms International on the next trading day is expected to be 3.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.13. Village Farms after-hype prediction price | USD 3.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Village Farms to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Village contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Village Farms International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0906% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Village Farms trading at USD 3.4, that is roughly USD 0.003081 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Village Farms' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Village Farms International options at the current volatility level of 1.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Village Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Village Farms' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Village Farms' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Village Farms stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Village Farms' open interest, investors have to compare it to Village Farms' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Village Farms is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Village. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Village Farms Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Village price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Village using various technical indicators. When you analyze Village charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Village Farms Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Village Farms International on the next trading day is expected to be 3.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Village Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Village Farms' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Village Farms Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Village Farms | Village Farms Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Village Farms Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Village Farms' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Village Farms' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.33, respectively. We have considered Village Farms' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Village Farms stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Village Farms stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7806 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0038 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1188 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0328 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.13 |
Predictive Modules for Village Farms
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Village Farms Intern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Village Farms After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Village Farms at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Village Farms or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Village Farms, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Village Farms Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Village Farms' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Village Farms' historical news coverage. Village Farms' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.17 and 8.33, respectively. We have considered Village Farms' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Village Farms is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Village Farms Intern is based on 3 months time horizon.
Village Farms Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Village Farms is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Village Farms backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Village Farms, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 4.93 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.40 | 3.40 | 0.00 |
|
Village Farms Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Village Farms Intern is traded for 3.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Village is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Village Farms is about 16433.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.39. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.33. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Village Farms Intern last dividend was issued on the 30th of June 2009. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Village Farms to cross-verify your projections.Village Farms Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Village Farms' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Village Farms' future price movements. Getting to know how Village Farms' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Village Farms may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LND | Brasilagro Adr | 0.05 | 1 per month | 1.16 | 0.05 | 2.71 | (2.19) | 6.54 | |
| CHSCL | CHS Inc CL | 0.35 | 31 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 0.40 | (0.28) | 0.99 | |
| LMNR | Limoneira Co | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.89 | (3.01) | 10.20 | |
| USNA | USANA Health Sciences | (0.01) | 11 per month | 1.87 | 0 | 4.04 | (3.37) | 13.27 | |
| BGS | BG Foods | (0.12) | 11 per month | 2.33 | 0.0003 | 3.75 | (3.50) | 31.62 | |
| ALCO | Alico Inc | (0.40) | 11 per month | 1.54 | 0.07 | 3.49 | (2.53) | 7.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Village Farms
For every potential investor in Village, whether a beginner or expert, Village Farms' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Village Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Village. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Village Farms' price trends.Village Farms Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Village Farms stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Village Farms could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Village Farms by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Village Farms Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Village Farms stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Village Farms shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Village Farms stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Village Farms International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Village Farms Risk Indicators
The analysis of Village Farms' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Village Farms' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting village stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.37 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.87 | |||
| Variance | 23.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.67 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.19 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Village Farms
The number of cover stories for Village Farms depends on current market conditions and Village Farms' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Village Farms is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Village Farms' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Village Farms Short Properties
Village Farms' future price predictability will typically decrease when Village Farms' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Village Farms International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Village Farms' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Village Farms' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 24.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Village Farms to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Can Agricultural Products & Services industry sustain growth momentum? Does Village have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Village Farms. If investors know Village will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Village Farms demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Earnings Share 0.05 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.215 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Village Farms Intern using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Village Farms' intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Village Farms' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Village Farms' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Village Farms is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Village Farms' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.