Bg Foods Stock Price Prediction
| BGS Stock | USD 6.38 0.11 1.75% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
26
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.66) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.28 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7041 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6841 | Wall Street Target Price 8.2143 |
Using BG Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BG Foods from the perspective of BG Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards BG Foods using BG Foods' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards BGS using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of BG Foods' stock price.
BG Foods Short Interest
An investor who is long BG Foods may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about BG Foods and may potentially protect profits, hedge BG Foods with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.1787 | Short Percent 0.144 | Short Ratio 9.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.6 M | 50 Day MA 8.1668 |
BG Foods Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to BG Foods' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BGS. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BGS can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BG Foods. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of BG Foods' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about BG Foods.
BG Foods Implied Volatility | 0.17 |
BG Foods' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of BG Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if BG Foods' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that BG Foods stock will not fluctuate a lot when BG Foods' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in BG Foods to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying BGS because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
BG Foods after-hype prediction price | USD 6.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current BGS contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that BG Foods will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0106% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With BG Foods trading at USD 6.38, that is roughly USD 6.78E-4 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating BG Foods' daily price movement you should consider acquiring BG Foods options at the current volatility level of 0.17%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
BGS |
BG Foods After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BG Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BG Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BG Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BG Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BG Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BG Foods' historical news coverage. BG Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.92 and 9.76, respectively. We have considered BG Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BG Foods is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BG Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.
BG Foods Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BG Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BG Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BG Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.38 | 3.43 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.38 | 6.34 | 0.63 |
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BG Foods Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of November BG Foods is traded for 6.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. BGS is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.34. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.63%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.38%. The volatility of related hype on BG Foods is about 15006.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.39. About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.66. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. BG Foods recorded a loss per share of 0.32. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out BG Foods Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.BG Foods Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BG Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BG Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how BG Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BG Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BTTR | Better Choice | (0.15) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.94 | (12.38) | 33.95 | |
| BDPT | BioAdaptives | 0.00 | 0 per month | 13.85 | 0.01 | 50.00 | (33.33) | 121.43 | |
| BEOLF | Beyond Oil | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.51 | 0 | 5.93 | (4.55) | 21.61 | |
| BON | Bon Natural Life | 0.14 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 9.09 | (6.76) | 19.07 | |
| GHAV | Grand Havana | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.73 | 0.06 | 20.00 | (16.67) | 49.49 | |
| BTOG | Bit Origin | 0.23 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 11.49 | (11.38) | 33.17 | |
| PLAG | Planet Green Holdings | (0.06) | 3 per month | 6.82 | 0.13 | 25.42 | (12.24) | 57.53 |
BG Foods Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BGS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BGS using various technical indicators. When you analyze BGS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About BG Foods Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of BG Foods stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as BG Foods, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of BG Foods based on analysis of BG Foods hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to BG Foods's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to BG Foods's related companies. | 2016 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0364 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.16 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.99 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.31 |
Story Coverage note for BG Foods
The number of cover stories for BG Foods depends on current market conditions and BG Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BG Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BG Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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BG Foods Short Properties
BG Foods' future price predictability will typically decrease when BG Foods' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BG Foods often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BG Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BG Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 74.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 41.1 M |
Additional Tools for BGS Stock Analysis
When running BG Foods' price analysis, check to measure BG Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BG Foods is operating at the current time. Most of BG Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BG Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BG Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BG Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.