Invesco Trust Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VGM Stock | USD 10.16 0.06 0.59% |
Invesco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Invesco Trust's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Invesco Trust's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Invesco Trust fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Invesco Trust's share price is approaching 44. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Invesco Trust, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.87) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.008 |
Using Invesco Trust hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Invesco Trust For from the perspective of Invesco Trust response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Invesco Trust For on the next trading day is expected to be 10.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.74. Invesco Trust after-hype prediction price | USD 10.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Trust to cross-verify your projections. Invesco Trust Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Invesco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Invesco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Invesco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Invesco Trust Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Invesco Trust's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.5 M | Current Value 1.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 7 M |
Invesco Trust Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Invesco Trust For on the next trading day is expected to be 10.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco Trust's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Invesco Trust Stock Forecast Pattern
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Invesco Trust Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Invesco Trust's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco Trust's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.65 and 10.52, respectively. We have considered Invesco Trust's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco Trust stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco Trust stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1157 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0442 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0043 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.7432 |
Predictive Modules for Invesco Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Trust For. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Invesco Trust After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Invesco Trust at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Invesco Trust or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Invesco Trust, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Invesco Trust Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Invesco Trust's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Invesco Trust's historical news coverage. Invesco Trust's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.73 and 10.59, respectively. We have considered Invesco Trust's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Invesco Trust is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Invesco Trust For is based on 3 months time horizon.
Invesco Trust Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Invesco Trust is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Invesco Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Invesco Trust, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.16 | 10.16 | 0.00 |
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Invesco Trust Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Invesco Trust For is traded for 10.16. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Invesco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Invesco Trust is about 1833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.16. About 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.02. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Invesco Trust For recorded a loss per share of 0.57. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of January 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Trust to cross-verify your projections.Invesco Trust Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Invesco Trust's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Invesco Trust's future price movements. Getting to know how Invesco Trust's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Invesco Trust may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VKQ | Invesco Municipal Trust | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.43 | (0.17) | 0.73 | (0.73) | 2.01 | |
| IQI | Invesco Quality Municipal | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.29 | (0.18) | 0.70 | (0.61) | 1.71 | |
| VCV | Invesco California Value | 0.09 | 1 per month | 0.77 | (0.02) | 1.53 | (1.55) | 3.42 | |
| IIM | Invesco Value Municipal | (0.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 0.97 | (0.89) | 4.42 | |
| VMO | Invesco Municipal Opportunity | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.34 | (0.19) | 0.64 | (0.53) | 1.90 | |
| VVR | Invesco Senior Income | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.42 | 0 | 1.27 | (0.94) | 3.12 | |
| VKI | Invesco Advantage MIT | (0.06) | 1 per month | 0.48 | (0.11) | 0.99 | (0.91) | 2.55 | |
| BWBFX | Baron Wealthbuilder Fund | 0.17 | 6 per month | 0.67 | 0.08 | 1.54 | (1.53) | 9.31 | |
| BTBFX | Boston Trust Asset | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.03 | (0.02) | 0.78 | (0.70) | 22.47 | |
| NVSCX | Small Pany Growth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Invesco Trust
For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco Trust's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco Trust's price trends.Invesco Trust Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco Trust stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco Trust could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco Trust by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Invesco Trust Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Invesco Trust stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Invesco Trust shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Invesco Trust stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Invesco Trust For entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1272.21 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.67) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.21 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.73 |
Invesco Trust Risk Indicators
The analysis of Invesco Trust's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco Trust's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting invesco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3423 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4247 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.434 | |||
| Variance | 0.1883 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2569 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1804 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Invesco Trust
The number of cover stories for Invesco Trust depends on current market conditions and Invesco Trust's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Invesco Trust is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Invesco Trust's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Invesco Trust Short Properties
Invesco Trust's future price predictability will typically decrease when Invesco Trust's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Invesco Trust For often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Invesco Trust's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Invesco Trust's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Trust to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Invesco Trust. If investors know Invesco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Invesco Trust listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.87) | Dividend Share 0.775 | Earnings Share (0.57) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.008 |
The market value of Invesco Trust For is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Invesco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Invesco Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Invesco Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Invesco Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Invesco Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Invesco Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Invesco Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Invesco Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.