VirnetX Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VHC Stock | USD 19.33 1.84 8.69% |
VirnetX Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast VirnetX Holding stock prices and determine the direction of VirnetX Holding Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VirnetX Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of VirnetX Holding's share price is approaching 47. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling VirnetX Holding, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 2.88 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 47 |
Using VirnetX Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of VirnetX Holding Corp from the perspective of VirnetX Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VirnetX Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.30. VirnetX Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 19.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VirnetX Holding to cross-verify your projections. VirnetX Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine VirnetX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for VirnetX using various technical indicators. When you analyze VirnetX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VirnetX Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VirnetX Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87, mean absolute percentage error of 1.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VirnetX Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VirnetX Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VirnetX Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VirnetX Holding | VirnetX Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VirnetX Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VirnetX Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VirnetX Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.07 and 24.59, respectively. We have considered VirnetX Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VirnetX Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VirnetX Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4687 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0437 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8717 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0417 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 52.3 |
Predictive Modules for VirnetX Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VirnetX Holding Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.VirnetX Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of VirnetX Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in VirnetX Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of VirnetX Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
VirnetX Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting VirnetX Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on VirnetX Holding's historical news coverage. VirnetX Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.07 and 24.59, respectively. We have considered VirnetX Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
VirnetX Holding is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of VirnetX Holding Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
VirnetX Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as VirnetX Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading VirnetX Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with VirnetX Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 5.26 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.33 | 19.33 | 0.00 |
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VirnetX Holding Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January VirnetX Holding Corp is traded for 19.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. VirnetX is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on VirnetX Holding is about 32875.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.33. About 14.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The book value of VirnetX Holding was at this time reported as 7.77. The company recorded a loss per share of 4.78. VirnetX Holding Corp last dividend was issued on the 18th of April 2023. The entity had 1:20 split on the 26th of October 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VirnetX Holding to cross-verify your projections.VirnetX Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to VirnetX Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict VirnetX Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how VirnetX Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how VirnetX Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MLGO | MicroAlgo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.69 | (10.15) | 24.69 | |
| ZENA | ZenaTech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.10 | 0 | 11.75 | (8.16) | 33.12 | |
| HPAI | Helport AI Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.35 | 0.01 | 7.14 | (5.80) | 18.92 | |
| GNSS | Genasys | (0.03) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.56 | (4.62) | 16.06 | |
| ALAR | Alarum Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 4.52 | (5.84) | 25.25 | |
| RDZN | Roadzen | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.69 | 0.02 | 12.04 | (5.75) | 21.55 | |
| NA | Nano Labs | (0.13) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.45 | (6.20) | 38.30 | |
| SKLZ | Skillz Platform | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 3.70 | (5.81) | 13.54 | |
| MX | MagnaChip Semiconductor | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.63 | (0) | 4.84 | (5.86) | 18.85 | |
| SLNH | Soluna Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 16.25 | (13.09) | 41.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for VirnetX Holding
For every potential investor in VirnetX, whether a beginner or expert, VirnetX Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VirnetX Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VirnetX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VirnetX Holding's price trends.VirnetX Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VirnetX Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VirnetX Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VirnetX Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VirnetX Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VirnetX Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VirnetX Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VirnetX Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VirnetX Holding Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4221.08 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.97) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.91 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.28 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.87) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.84) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.36 |
VirnetX Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of VirnetX Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VirnetX Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virnetx stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.2 | |||
| Variance | 26.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VirnetX Holding
The number of cover stories for VirnetX Holding depends on current market conditions and VirnetX Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that VirnetX Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about VirnetX Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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VirnetX Holding Short Properties
VirnetX Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when VirnetX Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of VirnetX Holding Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential VirnetX Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. VirnetX Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VirnetX Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Will Application Software sector continue expanding? Could VirnetX diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of VirnetX Holding. If investors know VirnetX will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every VirnetX Holding data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (4.78) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 47 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of VirnetX Holding Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VirnetX that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VirnetX Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VirnetX Holding's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because VirnetX Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VirnetX Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VirnetX Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VirnetX Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, VirnetX Holding's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.