Valero Energy Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VLOE34 Stock | BRL 410.00 1.23 0.30% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valero Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 410.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 210.36. Valero Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Valero Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Valero Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Valero Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Valero |
Valero Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valero Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 410.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.51, mean absolute percentage error of 39.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 210.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valero Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valero Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valero Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
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Valero Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valero Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valero Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 408.30 and 411.70, respectively. We have considered Valero Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valero Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valero Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9402 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.205 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.506 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 210.36 |
Predictive Modules for Valero Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valero Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Valero Energy
For every potential investor in Valero, whether a beginner or expert, Valero Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valero Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valero. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valero Energy's price trends.Valero Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valero Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valero Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valero Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valero Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Valero Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Valero Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Valero Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valero Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valero Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valero Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valero Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 410.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 410.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.62 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.23 |
Valero Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valero Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valero Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valero stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Variance | 3.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Valero Stock
When determining whether Valero Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valero Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valero Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valero Energy Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valero Energy to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Valero Stock refer to our How to Trade Valero Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.