Vince Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VNCE Stock | USD 2.82 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vince Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.04. Vince Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vince Holding stock prices and determine the direction of Vince Holding Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vince Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Vince Holding's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.24 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.32 | Wall Street Target Price 5.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.13 |
Using Vince Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vince Holding Corp from the perspective of Vince Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Vince Holding Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vince Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vince. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vince can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vince Holding Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vince Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.04.
Vince Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 2.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vince Holding to cross-verify your projections. Vince Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vince price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vince using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vince charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vince Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vince Holding Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 2.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vince Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vince Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vince Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vince Holding | Vince Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vince Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vince Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vince Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.53, respectively. We have considered Vince Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vince Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vince Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5845 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0024 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1173 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0363 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.035 |
Predictive Modules for Vince Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vince Holding Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vince Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vince Holding After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vince Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vince Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vince Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vince Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vince Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vince Holding's historical news coverage. Vince Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.14 and 7.47, respectively. We have considered Vince Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vince Holding is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vince Holding Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vince Holding Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vince Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vince Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vince Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 4.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.82 | 2.75 | 0.00 |
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Vince Holding Hype Timeline
Vince Holding Corp is at this time traded for 2.82. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Vince is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vince Holding is about 5619.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.82. About 57.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.69. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Vince Holding Corp recorded a loss per share of 1.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 24th of October 2017. The firm had 1:10 split on the 24th of October 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vince Holding to cross-verify your projections.Vince Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vince Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vince Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Vince Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vince Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WPRT | Westport Fuel Systems | (0.06) | 8 per month | 2.50 | 0.01 | 6.33 | (4.94) | 18.19 | |
| CDRO | Codere Online Corp | 0.05 | 5 per month | 1.65 | 0.08 | 5.98 | (3.51) | 13.32 | |
| JRSH | Jerash Holdings | (0.12) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.64 | (1.86) | 5.16 | |
| QVCGA | QVC Group | (0.85) | 9 per month | 9.52 | (0) | 14.97 | (14.29) | 46.70 | |
| NTZ | Natuzzi SpA | 0.15 | 10 per month | 4.29 | 0 | 10.37 | (7.04) | 25.04 | |
| TBHC | The Brand House | (0.02) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.13 | (5.07) | 16.01 | |
| PRTS | CarPartsCom | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.69 | (7.69) | 23.61 | |
| FAT | FAT Brands | (0.01) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 11.11 | (14.52) | 44.83 | |
| NTRP | NextTrip | 0.11 | 10 per month | 6.43 | 0.05 | 12.30 | (11.69) | 56.46 | |
| RAVE | Rave Restaurant Group | (0.05) | 9 per month | 3.17 | 0.05 | 5.45 | (4.43) | 23.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vince Holding
For every potential investor in Vince, whether a beginner or expert, Vince Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vince Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vince. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vince Holding's price trends.Vince Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vince Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vince Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vince Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vince Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vince Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vince Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vince Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vince Holding Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0702 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.77 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.07 |
Vince Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vince Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vince Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vince stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.55 | |||
| Variance | 20.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vince Holding
The number of cover stories for Vince Holding depends on current market conditions and Vince Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vince Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vince Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vince Holding Short Properties
Vince Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vince Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vince Holding Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vince Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vince Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 607 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vince Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vince Holding. If investors know Vince will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vince Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | Earnings Share (1.48) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.062 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Vince Holding Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vince that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vince Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vince Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vince Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vince Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vince Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vince Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vince Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.