Volkswagen Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

VOW3 Stock  EUR 80.36  0.48  0.59%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Volkswagen AG on the next trading day is expected to be 80.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.75. Volkswagen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Volkswagen's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Volkswagen works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Volkswagen Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Volkswagen AG on the next trading day is expected to be 80.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.47, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Volkswagen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Volkswagen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Volkswagen Stock Forecast Pattern

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Volkswagen Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Volkswagen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Volkswagen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.73 and 81.52, respectively. We have considered Volkswagen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
80.36
80.13
Expected Value
81.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Volkswagen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Volkswagen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0257
MADMean absolute deviation0.9291
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0104
SAESum of the absolute errors55.7479
When Volkswagen AG prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Volkswagen AG trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Volkswagen observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Volkswagen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Volkswagen AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
78.9780.3681.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
75.8777.2688.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
80.0982.6285.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Volkswagen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Volkswagen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Volkswagen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Volkswagen AG.

Other Forecasting Options for Volkswagen

For every potential investor in Volkswagen, whether a beginner or expert, Volkswagen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Volkswagen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Volkswagen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Volkswagen's price trends.

Volkswagen Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Volkswagen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Volkswagen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Volkswagen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Volkswagen AG Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Volkswagen's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Volkswagen's current price.

Volkswagen Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Volkswagen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Volkswagen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Volkswagen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Volkswagen AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Volkswagen Risk Indicators

The analysis of Volkswagen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Volkswagen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting volkswagen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Volkswagen Stock

Volkswagen financial ratios help investors to determine whether Volkswagen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Volkswagen with respect to the benefits of owning Volkswagen security.