Victorias Secret Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VSCO Stock | USD 62.44 3.42 5.79% |
Victorias Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Victorias Secret's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Victorias Secret's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Victorias Secret fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of rsi of Victorias Secret's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.6924 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.0196 | Wall Street Target Price 62.6667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.59) |
Using Victorias Secret hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Victorias Secret Co from the perspective of Victorias Secret response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Victorias Secret using Victorias Secret's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Victorias using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Victorias Secret's stock price.
Victorias Secret Short Interest
An investor who is long Victorias Secret may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Victorias Secret and may potentially protect profits, hedge Victorias Secret with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 31.9305 | Short Percent 0.171 | Short Ratio 3.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.1 M | 50 Day MA 54.5158 |
Victorias Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Victorias Secret Co on the next trading day is expected to be 62.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.61.Victorias Secret Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Victorias Secret's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Victorias. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Victorias can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Victorias Secret Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Victorias Secret's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Victorias Secret.
Victorias Secret Implied Volatility | 1.39 |
Victorias Secret's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Victorias Secret Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Victorias Secret's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Victorias Secret stock will not fluctuate a lot when Victorias Secret's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Victorias Secret Co on the next trading day is expected to be 62.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.61. Victorias Secret after-hype prediction price | USD 61.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Victorias | Build AI portfolio with Victorias Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Victorias contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Victorias Secret Co will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0869% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Victorias Secret trading at USD 62.44, that is roughly USD 0.0542 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Victorias Secret's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Victorias Secret Co options at the current volatility level of 1.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Victorias Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Victorias Secret's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Victorias Secret's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Victorias Secret stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Victorias Secret's open interest, investors have to compare it to Victorias Secret's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Victorias Secret is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Victorias. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Victorias Secret Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Victorias price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Victorias using various technical indicators. When you analyze Victorias charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Victorias Secret Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Victorias Secret Co on the next trading day is expected to be 62.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57, mean absolute percentage error of 3.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Victorias Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Victorias Secret's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Victorias Secret Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Victorias Secret | Victorias Secret Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Victorias Secret Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Victorias Secret's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Victorias Secret's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.00 and 66.72, respectively. We have considered Victorias Secret's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Victorias Secret stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Victorias Secret stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0385 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5697 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0299 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 92.61 |
Predictive Modules for Victorias Secret
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Victorias Secret. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Victorias Secret's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Victorias Secret After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Victorias Secret at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Victorias Secret or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Victorias Secret, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Victorias Secret Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Victorias Secret's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Victorias Secret's historical news coverage. Victorias Secret's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 57.98 and 65.76, respectively. We have considered Victorias Secret's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Victorias Secret is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Victorias Secret is based on 3 months time horizon.
Victorias Secret Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Victorias Secret is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Victorias Secret backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Victorias Secret, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.01 | 3.86 | 0.56 | 0.04 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
62.44 | 61.87 | 0.91 |
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Victorias Secret Hype Timeline
Victorias Secret is at this time traded for 62.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.56, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Victorias is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 61.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.91%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.01%. The volatility of related hype on Victorias Secret is about 10157.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 62.48. About 14.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Victorias Secret to cross-verify your projections.Victorias Secret Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Victorias Secret's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Victorias Secret's future price movements. Getting to know how Victorias Secret's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Victorias Secret may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | 1.16 | 9 per month | 2.10 | 0.16 | 5.78 | (3.78) | 19.55 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.08) | 9 per month | 1.70 | (0.04) | 2.98 | (3.04) | 9.51 | |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear | 0.65 | 10 per month | 1.94 | 0.10 | 4.23 | (3.25) | 21.48 | |
| ANF | Abercrombie Fitch | (0.96) | 11 per month | 3.56 | 0.1 | 5.90 | (3.97) | 55.23 | |
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts | (0.41) | 8 per month | 2.63 | 0.06 | 6.91 | (3.57) | 16.72 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | 0.06 | 7 per month | 1.11 | 0.24 | 2.78 | (2.01) | 6.40 | |
| VC | Visteon Corp | (0.83) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.30 | (2.78) | 8.62 | |
| YETI | YETI Holdings | 0.23 | 3 per month | 1.54 | 0.20 | 4.49 | (3.04) | 12.03 | |
| ASO | Academy Sports Outdoors | 0.53 | 9 per month | 2.08 | 0.10 | 5.20 | (3.51) | 12.70 | |
| ZGN | Ermenegildo Zegna NV | 0.03 | 9 per month | 3.00 | 0 | 3.59 | (3.34) | 17.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Victorias Secret
For every potential investor in Victorias, whether a beginner or expert, Victorias Secret's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Victorias Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Victorias. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Victorias Secret's price trends.Victorias Secret Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Victorias Secret stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Victorias Secret could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Victorias Secret by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Victorias Secret Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Victorias Secret stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Victorias Secret shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Victorias Secret stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Victorias Secret Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Victorias Secret Risk Indicators
The analysis of Victorias Secret's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Victorias Secret's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting victorias stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.87 | |||
| Variance | 14.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Victorias Secret
The number of cover stories for Victorias Secret depends on current market conditions and Victorias Secret's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Victorias Secret is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Victorias Secret's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Victorias Secret Short Properties
Victorias Secret's future price predictability will typically decrease when Victorias Secret's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Victorias Secret Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Victorias Secret's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Victorias Secret's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 227 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Victorias Secret to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Will Specialty Retail sector continue expanding? Could Victorias diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Victorias Secret. If investors know Victorias will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Victorias Secret data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Earnings Share 2.13 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.093 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Victorias Secret requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Victorias's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Victorias Secret's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Victorias Secret's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Victorias Secret's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Victorias Secret is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Victorias Secret's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.