Advance Auto Parts Stock Price Prediction
| AAP Stock | USD 47.51 0.03 0.06% |
Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.66) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4676 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.8161 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.6694 | Wall Street Target Price 51.2857 |
Using Advance Auto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advance Auto Parts from the perspective of Advance Auto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Advance Auto using Advance Auto's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Advance using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Advance Auto's stock price.
Advance Auto Short Interest
An investor who is long Advance Auto may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Advance Auto and may potentially protect profits, hedge Advance Auto with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 49.6685 | Short Percent 0.3374 | Short Ratio 7.23 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.3 M | 50 Day MA 45.9402 |
Advance Auto Parts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Advance Auto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Advance. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Advance can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Advance Auto Parts. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Advance Auto's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Advance Auto.
Advance Auto Implied Volatility | 0.75 |
Advance Auto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Advance Auto Parts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Advance Auto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Advance Auto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Advance Auto's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Advance Auto to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Advance because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Advance Auto after-hype prediction price | USD 47.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Advance contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Advance Auto Parts will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0469% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Advance Auto trading at USD 47.51, that is roughly USD 0.0223 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Advance Auto's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Advance Auto Parts options at the current volatility level of 0.75%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Advance Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Advance Auto After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Advance Auto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advance Auto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advance Auto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Advance Auto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Advance Auto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advance Auto's historical news coverage. Advance Auto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.21 and 51.13, respectively. We have considered Advance Auto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Advance Auto is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advance Auto Parts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Advance Auto Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advance Auto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advance Auto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advance Auto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.46 | 0.48 | 0.09 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
47.51 | 47.67 | 0.27 |
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Advance Auto Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Advance Auto Parts is traded for 47.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.48, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Advance is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 47.67 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 129.1%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Advance Auto is about 677.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.60. The company reported the last year's revenue of 9.09 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (586.96 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.65 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Advance Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Advance Auto Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Advance Auto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advance Auto's future price movements. Getting to know how Advance Auto's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advance Auto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASO | Academy Sports Outdoors | (0.57) | 9 per month | 2.24 | 0.04 | 4.95 | (3.51) | 12.70 | |
| RH | RH | 6.88 | 10 per month | 2.90 | 0.07 | 6.59 | (4.89) | 15.48 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | (0.22) | 8 per month | 2.16 | 0.24 | 5.93 | (4.23) | 22.23 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.35) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.73 | (3.04) | 9.51 | |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | 0.54 | 6 per month | 1.86 | 0.19 | 5.78 | (3.60) | 19.53 | |
| VC | Visteon Corp | (0.64) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.85 | (3.53) | 8.62 | |
| PTON | Peloton Interactive | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.78 | (5.89) | 21.58 | |
| DRVN | Driven Brands Holdings | 0.29 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.92 | (2.87) | 9.66 | |
| FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | (0.94) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.52 | (6.75) | 27.50 | |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear | (0.03) | 11 per month | 1.94 | (0.03) | 3.71 | (3.26) | 10.24 |
Advance Auto Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Advance price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advance using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advance charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Advance Auto Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Advance Auto stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Advance Auto Parts, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Advance Auto based on analysis of Advance Auto hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Advance Auto's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Advance Auto's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0379 | 0.0228 | 0.0341 | 0.0358 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.97 | 0.29 | 0.87 | 0.7 |
Pair Trading with Advance Auto
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Advance Auto position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Advance Auto will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Advance Stock
Moving against Advance Stock
| 0.75 | TSGZF | Tristar Gold | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | FTCI | FTC Solar | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | MGPUF | MG Plc | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | UBSI | United Bankshares | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | SBSW | Sibanye Gold | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | NHYDY | Norsk Hydro ASA | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Advance Auto could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Advance Auto when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Advance Auto - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Advance Auto Parts to buy it.
The correlation of Advance Auto is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Advance Auto moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Advance Auto Parts moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Advance Auto can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Advance Stock Analysis
When running Advance Auto's price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.