Vaxart Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

VXRT Stock  USD 0.42  0.03  7.69%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Vaxart Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 0.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.85. Vaxart Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Vaxart's stock price is slightly above 63. This entails that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Vaxart, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Vaxart's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Vaxart Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Vaxart hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vaxart Inc from the perspective of Vaxart response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Vaxart Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 0.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.85.

Vaxart after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.42  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vaxart to cross-verify your projections.

Vaxart Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Vaxart price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vaxart using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vaxart charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Vaxart price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Vaxart Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Vaxart Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 0.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vaxart Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vaxart's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vaxart Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest VaxartVaxart Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Vaxart Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vaxart's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vaxart's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 4.21, respectively. We have considered Vaxart's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.42
0.38
Expected Value
4.21
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vaxart stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vaxart stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.1502
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0139
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0375
SAESum of the absolute errors0.8472
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Vaxart Inc historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Vaxart

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vaxart Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.424.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.020.334.16
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Vaxart

For every potential investor in Vaxart, whether a beginner or expert, Vaxart's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vaxart Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vaxart. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vaxart's price trends.

Vaxart Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vaxart stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vaxart could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vaxart by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vaxart Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vaxart's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vaxart's current price.

Vaxart Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vaxart stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vaxart shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vaxart stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vaxart Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vaxart Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vaxart's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vaxart's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaxart stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Vaxart Stock Analysis

When running Vaxart's price analysis, check to measure Vaxart's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vaxart is operating at the current time. Most of Vaxart's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vaxart's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vaxart's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vaxart to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.