Warner Bros Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WBD Stock | USD 27.54 0.06 0.22% |
Warner Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Warner Bros stock prices and determine the direction of Warner Bros Discovery's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Warner Bros' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of RSI of Warner Bros' share price is at 52. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Warner Bros, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Warner Bros hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Warner Bros Discovery from the perspective of Warner Bros response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Warner Bros Discovery on the next trading day is expected to be 27.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.62. Warner Bros after-hype prediction price | USD 27.54 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Warner Bros to cross-verify your projections. Warner Bros Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Warner price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Warner using various technical indicators. When you analyze Warner charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Warner Bros Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Warner Bros Discovery on the next trading day is expected to be 27.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Warner Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Warner Bros' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Warner Bros Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Warner Bros | Warner Bros Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Warner Bros Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Warner Bros' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Warner Bros' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.56 and 29.52, respectively. We have considered Warner Bros' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Warner Bros stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Warner Bros stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.945 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0823 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.377 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.62 |
Predictive Modules for Warner Bros
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Warner Bros Discovery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Warner Bros After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Warner Bros at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Warner Bros or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Warner Bros, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Warner Bros Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Warner Bros' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Warner Bros' historical news coverage. Warner Bros' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.56 and 29.52, respectively. We have considered Warner Bros' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Warner Bros is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Warner Bros Discovery is based on 3 months time horizon.
Warner Bros Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Warner Bros is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Warner Bros backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Warner Bros, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 1.98 | 3.86 | 0.21 | 5 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.54 | 27.54 | 0.00 |
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Warner Bros Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Warner Bros Discovery is traded for 27.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.86, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.21. Warner is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 17.46%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on Warner Bros is about 317.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.33. About 74.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.32. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Warner Bros Discovery has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.79. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1957:1000 split on the 7th of August 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Warner Bros to cross-verify your projections.Warner Bros Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Warner Bros' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Warner Bros' future price movements. Getting to know how Warner Bros' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Warner Bros may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LYV | Live Nation Entertainment | 1.42 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.70 | (2.61) | 11.61 | |
| CMCSA | Comcast Corp | 0.23 | 3 per month | 1.78 | 0.05 | 2.92 | (2.55) | 7.92 | |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Holdings | (6.32) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.42 | (2.93) | 10.21 | |
| FOXA | Fox Corp Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.13 | 2.02 | (1.42) | 5.25 | |
| WMG | Warner Music Group | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.58 | (2.66) | 8.94 | |
| TKO | TKO Group Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.79 | 0.04 | 3.18 | (2.69) | 7.61 | |
| AMX | America Movil SAB | (0.28) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.83 | (3.16) | 6.54 | |
| RDDT | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.96 | (6.61) | 21.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Warner Bros
For every potential investor in Warner, whether a beginner or expert, Warner Bros' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Warner Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Warner. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Warner Bros' price trends.Warner Bros Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Warner Bros stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Warner Bros could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Warner Bros by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Warner Bros Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Warner Bros stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Warner Bros shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Warner Bros stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Warner Bros Discovery entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Warner Bros Risk Indicators
The analysis of Warner Bros' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Warner Bros' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting warner stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Warner Bros
The number of cover stories for Warner Bros depends on current market conditions and Warner Bros' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Warner Bros is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Warner Bros' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Warner Bros Short Properties
Warner Bros' future price predictability will typically decrease when Warner Bros' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Warner Bros Discovery often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Warner Bros' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Warner Bros' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Warner Bros to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Warner diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Warner Bros. Anticipated expansion of Warner directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Warner Bros data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Warner Bros Discovery's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Warner's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Warner Bros' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Warner Bros' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Warner Bros' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Warner Bros is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Warner Bros' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.