CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WCE Stock | 67.05 1.00 1.51% |
CECO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CECO ENVIRONMENTAL hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL from the perspective of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL on the next trading day is expected to be 67.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.98. CECO ENVIRONMENTAL after-hype prediction price | EUR 68.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CECO |
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CECO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CECO using various technical indicators. When you analyze CECO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL on the next trading day is expected to be 67.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.07, mean absolute percentage error of 1.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CECO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CECO ENVIRONMENTAL | CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.44 and 69.55, respectively. We have considered CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CECO ENVIRONMENTAL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7793 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.499 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0653 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0201 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.9809 |
Predictive Modules for CECO ENVIRONMENTAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CECO ENVIRONMENTAL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CECO ENVIRONMENTAL or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's historical news coverage. CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 66.22 and 71.32, respectively. We have considered CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL is based on 3 months time horizon.
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CECO ENVIRONMENTAL is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CECO ENVIRONMENTAL backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CECO ENVIRONMENTAL, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.85 | 2.56 | 1.70 | 0.10 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
67.05 | 68.77 | 2.57 |
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CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Hype Timeline
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL is at this time traded for 67.05on Stuttgart Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.7, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. CECO is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 68.77 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 128.0%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 2.57%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.85%. The volatility of related hype on CECO ENVIRONMENTAL is about 2206.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 67.15. CECO ENVIRONMENTAL has accumulated 3.35 M in total debt. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL to cross-verify your projections.CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's future price movements. Getting to know how CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CECO ENVIRONMENTAL may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DAP | DANAHER | (0.54) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.14 | (2.62) | 7.27 | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | (5.60) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.33 | (5.57) | 24.55 | |
| 4I1 | Philip Morris International | 3.94 | 3 per month | 1.19 | 0.13 | 2.89 | (2.55) | 7.67 | |
| AMG | Amgen Inc | 2.78 | 9 per month | 1.55 | 0.07 | 3.98 | (2.86) | 10.70 | |
| HK2C | Hong Kong Exchanges | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.49 | (1.47) | 5.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for CECO ENVIRONMENTAL
For every potential investor in CECO, whether a beginner or expert, CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CECO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CECO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's price trends.CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CECO ENVIRONMENTAL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CECO ENVIRONMENTAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CECO ENVIRONMENTAL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CECO ENVIRONMENTAL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CECO ENVIRONMENTAL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CECO ENVIRONMENTAL entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CECO ENVIRONMENTAL Risk Indicators
The analysis of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ceco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.69 | |||
| Variance | 7.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.78 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CECO ENVIRONMENTAL
The number of cover stories for CECO ENVIRONMENTAL depends on current market conditions and CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CECO ENVIRONMENTAL is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for CECO Stock Analysis
When running CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's price analysis, check to measure CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CECO ENVIRONMENTAL is operating at the current time. Most of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CECO ENVIRONMENTAL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CECO ENVIRONMENTAL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.