Winmark Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WINA Stock | USD 450.69 1.24 0.27% |
Winmark Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Winmark stock prices and determine the direction of Winmark's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Winmark's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The value of RSI of Winmark's share price is at 56. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Winmark, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.74 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.39 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.4 | Wall Street Target Price 545 |
Using Winmark hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Winmark from the perspective of Winmark response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Winmark on the next trading day is expected to be 450.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 408.66. Winmark after-hype prediction price | USD 450.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Winmark to cross-verify your projections. Winmark Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Winmark price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Winmark using various technical indicators. When you analyze Winmark charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Winmark Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Winmark on the next trading day is expected to be 450.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.81, mean absolute percentage error of 77.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 408.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Winmark Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Winmark's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Winmark Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Winmark | Winmark Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Winmark Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Winmark's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Winmark's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 448.64 and 452.74, respectively. We have considered Winmark's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Winmark stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Winmark stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.6212 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6297 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.811 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 408.66 |
Predictive Modules for Winmark
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Winmark. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Winmark After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Winmark at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Winmark or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Winmark, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Winmark Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Winmark's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Winmark's historical news coverage. Winmark's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 448.45 and 452.55, respectively. We have considered Winmark's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Winmark is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Winmark is based on 3 months time horizon.
Winmark Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Winmark is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Winmark backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Winmark, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.05 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 31 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 31 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
450.69 | 450.50 | 0.04 |
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Winmark Hype Timeline
Winmark is at this time traded for 450.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Winmark is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 450.5. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 173.73%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Winmark is about 1589.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 450.71. About 17.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.22. Winmark last dividend was issued on the 11th of February 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 31 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Winmark to cross-verify your projections.Winmark Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Winmark's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Winmark's future price movements. Getting to know how Winmark's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Winmark may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TRS | TriMas | 0.40 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.27 | (3.19) | 8.40 | |
| RERE | ATRenew Inc DRC | (0.33) | 6 per month | 2.10 | 0.21 | 6.33 | (3.03) | 13.51 | |
| GOOS | Canada Goose Holdings | 0.12 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.53 | (4.15) | 16.84 | |
| RVLV | Revolve Group LLC | 0.28 | 11 per month | 2.25 | 0.11 | 6.43 | (3.71) | 16.41 | |
| TILE | Interface | 0.54 | 11 per month | 1.73 | 0.08 | 2.93 | (2.51) | 8.15 | |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide | 0.16 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.02 | (6.28) | 24.27 | |
| ARCO | Arcos Dorados Holdings | 0.07 | 7 per month | 1.24 | 0.09 | 4.36 | (2.27) | 9.20 | |
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings | 0.21 | 10 per month | 2.76 | (0.01) | 4.28 | (4.37) | 11.38 | |
| ARHS | Arhaus Inc | (0.22) | 12 per month | 2.43 | (0.02) | 4.68 | (4.31) | 12.28 | |
| MBC | MasterBrand | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.50 | (3.83) | 15.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Winmark
For every potential investor in Winmark, whether a beginner or expert, Winmark's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Winmark Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Winmark. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Winmark's price trends.Winmark Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Winmark stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Winmark could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Winmark by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Winmark Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Winmark stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Winmark shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Winmark stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Winmark entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Winmark Risk Indicators
The analysis of Winmark's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Winmark's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting winmark stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Variance | 4.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Winmark
The number of cover stories for Winmark depends on current market conditions and Winmark's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Winmark is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Winmark's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Winmark Short Properties
Winmark's future price predictability will typically decrease when Winmark's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Winmark often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Winmark's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Winmark's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Winmark to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Winmark Stock refer to our How to Trade Winmark Stock guide.You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Winmark. Anticipated expansion of Winmark directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Winmark assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0) | Dividend Share 3.72 | Earnings Share 11.22 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.052 |
Understanding Winmark requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Winmark's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Winmark's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Winmark's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Winmark's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Winmark is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Winmark's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.