TMX Group Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| X Stock | CAD 50.27 0.33 0.66% |
TMX Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the RSI of TMX Group's share price is approaching 45. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling TMX Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using TMX Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TMX Group Limited from the perspective of TMX Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TMX Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 50.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.47. TMX Group after-hype prediction price | CAD 50.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
TMX |
TMX Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TMX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TMX using various technical indicators. When you analyze TMX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TMX Group Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TMX Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 50.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TMX Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TMX Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TMX Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TMX Group | TMX Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
TMX Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TMX Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TMX Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.05 and 51.32, respectively. We have considered TMX Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TMX Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TMX Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.914 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4503 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0088 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.4683 |
Predictive Modules for TMX Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TMX Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TMX Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TMX Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TMX Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TMX Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TMX Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TMX Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TMX Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TMX Group's historical news coverage. TMX Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.12 and 51.38, respectively. We have considered TMX Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TMX Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TMX Group Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
TMX Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TMX Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TMX Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TMX Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
50.27 | 50.25 | 0.04 |
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TMX Group Hype Timeline
TMX Group Limited is at this time traded for 50.27on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. TMX is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 50.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on TMX Group is about 616.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.28. About 56.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of TMX Group was at this time reported as 17.02. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.43. TMX Group Limited last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. The entity had 5:1 split on the 14th of June 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TMX Group to cross-verify your projections.TMX Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TMX Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TMX Group's future price movements. Getting to know how TMX Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TMX Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IAG | iA Financial | 0.49 | 4 per month | 1.38 | (0.02) | 1.91 | (2.42) | 6.82 | |
| IGM | IGM Financial | 0.22 | 1 per month | 0.80 | 0.22 | 2.58 | (1.58) | 6.84 | |
| IFC | Intact Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.69 | (1.77) | 7.09 | |
| HUT | Hut 8 Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.32 | 0.02 | 13.61 | (12.28) | 28.64 | |
| DFY | Definity Financial Corp | 0.87 | 9 per month | 1.30 | (0) | 2.56 | (2.00) | 8.82 | |
| PWF-PZ | Power Financial Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 0.95 | (0.82) | 2.94 | |
| ONEX | Onex Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.55 | (2.49) | 5.63 | |
| GLXY | Galaxy Digital Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.31 | (8.39) | 22.99 | |
| ELF | E L Financial Corp | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.95 | 0.04 | 1.82 | (1.53) | 6.92 |
Other Forecasting Options for TMX Group
For every potential investor in TMX, whether a beginner or expert, TMX Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TMX Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TMX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TMX Group's price trends.TMX Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TMX Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TMX Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TMX Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TMX Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TMX Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TMX Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TMX Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TMX Group Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TMX Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of TMX Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TMX Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tmx stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Variance | 1.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TMX Group
The number of cover stories for TMX Group depends on current market conditions and TMX Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TMX Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TMX Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TMX Group Short Properties
TMX Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when TMX Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TMX Group Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TMX Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TMX Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 279 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 433.4 M |
Other Information on Investing in TMX Stock
TMX Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether TMX Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TMX with respect to the benefits of owning TMX Group security.