Energy Select Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| XLE Etf | USD 49.67 0.45 0.91% |
Energy Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Energy Select stock prices and determine the direction of Energy Select Sector's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Energy Select's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Energy Select's etf price is about 66. This entails that the etf is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Energy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Energy Select hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Energy Select Sector from the perspective of Energy Select response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Energy Select using Energy Select's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Energy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Energy Select's stock price.
Energy Select Implied Volatility | 0.21 |
Energy Select's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Energy Select Sector stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Energy Select's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Energy Select stock will not fluctuate a lot when Energy Select's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Energy Select Sector on the next trading day is expected to be 49.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.99. Energy Select after-hype prediction price | USD 49.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Energy Select to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Energy contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Energy Select Sector will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0131% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Energy Select trading at USD 49.67, that is roughly USD 0.006519 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Energy Select's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Energy Select Sector options at the current volatility level of 0.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Energy Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Energy Select's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Energy Select's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Energy Select stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Energy Select's open interest, investors have to compare it to Energy Select's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Energy Select is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Energy. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Energy Select Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Energy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Energy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Energy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Energy Select Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Energy Select Sector on the next trading day is expected to be 49.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Energy Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Energy Select's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Energy Select Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Energy Select | Energy Select Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Energy Select Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Energy Select's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Energy Select's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 48.38 and 50.93, respectively. We have considered Energy Select's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Energy Select etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Energy Select etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9891 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1212 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4589 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0101 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.9921 |
Predictive Modules for Energy Select
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Energy Select Sector. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Energy Select After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Energy Select at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Energy Select or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Energy Select, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Energy Select Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Energy Select's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Energy Select's historical news coverage. Energy Select's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 48.40 and 50.94, respectively. We have considered Energy Select's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Energy Select is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Energy Select Sector is based on 3 months time horizon.
Energy Select Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Energy Select is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Energy Select backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Energy Select, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.27 | 1.16 | 0.27 | 13 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
49.67 | 49.67 | 0.00 |
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Energy Select Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Energy Select Sector is traded for 49.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.27. Energy is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 25.1%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Energy Select is about 109.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 49.94. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.85. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Energy Select Sector recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.33. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Energy Select to cross-verify your projections.Energy Select Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Energy Select's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Energy Select's future price movements. Getting to know how Energy Select's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Energy Select may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XLC | Communication Services Select | 1.04 | 10 per month | 0.68 | (0.08) | 1.15 | (1.09) | 3.23 | |
| EFV | iShares MSCI EAFE | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.40 | 0.14 | 1.13 | (1.11) | 3.04 | |
| VTCIX | Vanguard Tax Managed Capital | (0.30) | 1 per month | 0.75 | (0.01) | 1.19 | (1.18) | 3.57 | |
| DVY | iShares Select Dividend | (0.65) | 8 per month | 0.50 | 0.04 | 1.42 | (0.87) | 3.53 | |
| IUSG | iShares Core SP | 0.95 | 5 per month | 1.10 | (0.03) | 1.33 | (1.79) | 4.63 | |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector | 5.06 | 3 per month | 0.82 | 0.05 | 1.36 | (1.62) | 3.86 | |
| VFTNX | Vanguard Ftse Social | 5.06 | 8 per month | 0.85 | (0.03) | 1.14 | (1.38) | 3.94 | |
| VFTAX | Vanguard Ftse Social | 0.63 | 1 per month | 0.87 | (0.03) | 1.13 | (1.35) | 3.94 | |
| SPYV | SPDR Portfolio SP | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.49 | (0.01) | 1.00 | (1.03) | 3.09 | |
| SPDW | SPDR SP World | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.49 | 0.14 | 1.22 | (1.21) | 2.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Energy Select
For every potential investor in Energy, whether a beginner or expert, Energy Select's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Energy Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Energy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Energy Select's price trends.Energy Select Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Energy Select etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Energy Select could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Energy Select by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Energy Select Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Energy Select etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Energy Select shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Energy Select etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Energy Select Sector entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Energy Select Risk Indicators
The analysis of Energy Select's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Energy Select's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting energy etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9929 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Energy Select
The number of cover stories for Energy Select depends on current market conditions and Energy Select's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Energy Select is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Energy Select's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Energy Select to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
The market value of Energy Select Sector is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Energy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Energy Select's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Energy Select's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Energy Select's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Energy Select's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Energy Select's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Energy Select is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Energy Select's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.