Consumer Discretionary Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| XLY Etf | USD 122.69 0.37 0.30% |
Consumer Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Consumer Discretionary's share price is at 53. This entails that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Consumer Discretionary, making its price go up or down. Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Consumer Discretionary hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Consumer Discretionary Select from the perspective of Consumer Discretionary response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Consumer Discretionary using Consumer Discretionary's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Consumer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Consumer Discretionary's stock price.
Consumer Discretionary Implied Volatility | 0.28 |
Consumer Discretionary's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Consumer Discretionary Select stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Consumer Discretionary's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Consumer Discretionary stock will not fluctuate a lot when Consumer Discretionary's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Consumer Discretionary Select on the next trading day is expected to be 124.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.00. Consumer Discretionary after-hype prediction price | USD 122.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Consumer | Build AI portfolio with Consumer Etf |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Consumer contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Consumer Discretionary Select will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0175% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Consumer Discretionary trading at USD 122.69, that is roughly USD 0.0215 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Consumer Discretionary's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Consumer Discretionary Select options at the current volatility level of 0.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Consumer Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Consumer Discretionary's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Consumer Discretionary's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Consumer Discretionary stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Consumer Discretionary's open interest, investors have to compare it to Consumer Discretionary's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Consumer Discretionary is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Consumer. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Consumer Discretionary Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Consumer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Consumer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Consumer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Consumer Discretionary Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Consumer Discretionary Select on the next trading day is expected to be 124.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44, mean absolute percentage error of 3.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Consumer Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Consumer Discretionary's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Consumer Discretionary Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Consumer Discretionary | Consumer Discretionary Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Consumer Discretionary Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Consumer Discretionary's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Consumer Discretionary's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 123.46 and 125.79, respectively. We have considered Consumer Discretionary's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Consumer Discretionary etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Consumer Discretionary etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1278 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4355 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0121 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 88.9981 |
Predictive Modules for Consumer Discretionary
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Consumer Discretionary. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Consumer Discretionary After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Consumer Discretionary at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Consumer Discretionary or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Consumer Discretionary, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Consumer Discretionary Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Consumer Discretionary's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Consumer Discretionary's historical news coverage. Consumer Discretionary's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 121.50 and 123.88, respectively. We have considered Consumer Discretionary's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Consumer Discretionary is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Consumer Discretionary is based on 3 months time horizon.
Consumer Discretionary Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Consumer Discretionary is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Consumer Discretionary backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Consumer Discretionary, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.16 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
122.69 | 122.69 | 0.00 |
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Consumer Discretionary Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Consumer Discretionary is traded for 122.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Consumer is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 134.88%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Consumer Discretionary is about 139.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 122.77. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.18. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Consumer Discretionary to cross-verify your projections.Consumer Discretionary Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Consumer Discretionary's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Consumer Discretionary's future price movements. Getting to know how Consumer Discretionary's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Consumer Discretionary may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SPYV | SPDR Portfolio SP | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.49 | (0.01) | 1.00 | (1.03) | 3.09 | |
| OEF | iShares SP 100 | 0.47 | 7 per month | 0.79 | (0.03) | 1.03 | (1.32) | 4.23 | |
| VITNX | Vanguard Institutional Total | 0.07 | 16 per month | 0.76 | (0.01) | 1.15 | (1.22) | 3.55 | |
| SPDW | SPDR SP World | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.49 | 0.14 | 1.22 | (1.21) | 2.68 | |
| TQQQ | ProShares UltraPro QQQ | 0.50 | 8 per month | 3.43 | 0.03 | 4.28 | (6.13) | 13.87 | |
| XLE | Energy Select Sector | 5.06 | 13 per month | 1.04 | 0.10 | 2.26 | (1.44) | 5.38 | |
| XLC | Communication Services Select | 1.04 | 10 per month | 0.68 | (0.08) | 1.15 | (1.09) | 3.23 | |
| VTCIX | Vanguard Tax Managed Capital | (0.30) | 1 per month | 0.75 | (0.01) | 1.19 | (1.18) | 3.57 | |
| VFTAX | Vanguard Ftse Social | 0.63 | 1 per month | 0.87 | (0.03) | 1.13 | (1.35) | 3.94 | |
| IUSG | iShares Core SP | 0.95 | 5 per month | 1.10 | (0.03) | 1.33 | (1.79) | 4.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Consumer Discretionary
For every potential investor in Consumer, whether a beginner or expert, Consumer Discretionary's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Consumer Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Consumer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Consumer Discretionary's price trends.Consumer Discretionary Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Consumer Discretionary etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Consumer Discretionary could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Consumer Discretionary by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Consumer Discretionary Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Consumer Discretionary etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Consumer Discretionary shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Consumer Discretionary etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Consumer Discretionary Select entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Consumer Discretionary Risk Indicators
The analysis of Consumer Discretionary's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Consumer Discretionary's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting consumer etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9038 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Consumer Discretionary
The number of cover stories for Consumer Discretionary depends on current market conditions and Consumer Discretionary's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Consumer Discretionary is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Consumer Discretionary's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Consumer Discretionary to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
The market value of Consumer Discretionary is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Consumer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Consumer Discretionary's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Consumer Discretionary's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Consumer Discretionary's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Consumer Discretionary's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Consumer Discretionary's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Consumer Discretionary is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Consumer Discretionary's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.