Consumer Discretionary Select Etf Price Prediction
| XLY Etf | USD 227.00 0.10 0.04% |
Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Consumer Discretionary hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Consumer Discretionary Select from the perspective of Consumer Discretionary response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Consumer Discretionary using Consumer Discretionary's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Consumer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Consumer Discretionary's stock price.
Consumer Discretionary Implied Volatility | 0.26 |
Consumer Discretionary's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Consumer Discretionary Select stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Consumer Discretionary's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Consumer Discretionary stock will not fluctuate a lot when Consumer Discretionary's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Consumer Discretionary to buy its etf at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Consumer because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell etfs at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Consumer Discretionary after-hype prediction price | USD 227.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Consumer contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Consumer Discretionary Select will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0163% per day over the life of the 2025-04-04 option contract. With Consumer Discretionary trading at USD 227.0, that is roughly USD 0.0369 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Consumer Discretionary's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Consumer Discretionary Select options at the current volatility level of 0.26%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Consumer |
Consumer Discretionary After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Consumer Discretionary at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Consumer Discretionary or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Consumer Discretionary, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Consumer Discretionary Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Consumer Discretionary's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Consumer Discretionary's historical news coverage. Consumer Discretionary's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 225.82 and 228.18, respectively. We have considered Consumer Discretionary's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Consumer Discretionary is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Consumer Discretionary is based on 3 months time horizon.
Consumer Discretionary Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Consumer Discretionary is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Consumer Discretionary backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Consumer Discretionary, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.18 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
227.00 | 227.00 | 0.00 |
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Consumer Discretionary Hype Timeline
On the 16th of February 2025 Consumer Discretionary is traded for 227.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Consumer is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 76.13%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Consumer Discretionary is about 2107.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 227.01. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.18. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Consumer Discretionary Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Consumer Discretionary Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Consumer Discretionary's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Consumer Discretionary's future price movements. Getting to know how Consumer Discretionary's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Consumer Discretionary may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| XLP | Consumer Staples Select | (0.68) | 6 per month | 0.71 | (0) | 0.99 | (1.17) | 4.27 | |
| XLI | Industrial Select Sector | (0.77) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.21 | (1.22) | 4.22 | |
| XLB | Materials Select Sector | (0.26) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.25 | (1.31) | 4.05 | |
| XLV | Health Care Select | 1.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.30 | (1.36) | 3.14 | |
| XLK | Technology Select Sector | 0.84 | 9 per month | 1.49 | 0.01 | 1.83 | (2.18) | 7.16 |
Consumer Discretionary Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Consumer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Consumer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Consumer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Consumer Discretionary Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Consumer Discretionary stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Consumer Discretionary Select, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Consumer Discretionary based on analysis of Consumer Discretionary hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Consumer Discretionary's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Consumer Discretionary's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Consumer Discretionary
The number of cover stories for Consumer Discretionary depends on current market conditions and Consumer Discretionary's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Consumer Discretionary is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Consumer Discretionary's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Consumer Discretionary Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
The market value of Consumer Discretionary is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Consumer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Consumer Discretionary's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Consumer Discretionary's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Consumer Discretionary's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Consumer Discretionary's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Consumer Discretionary's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Consumer Discretionary is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Consumer Discretionary's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.