Yancoal Australia Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

YA1 Stock  EUR 3.50  0.17  5.11%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Yancoal Australia on the next trading day is expected to be 3.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.68. Yancoal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Yancoal Australia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Yancoal Australia's stock price is roughly 65. This entails that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 23rd of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Yancoal, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 65

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Yancoal Australia's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Yancoal Australia and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Yancoal Australia's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Yancoal Australia, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Yancoal Australia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Yancoal Australia from the perspective of Yancoal Australia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Yancoal Australia on the next trading day is expected to be 3.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.68.

Yancoal Australia after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 3.5  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yancoal Australia to cross-verify your projections.

Yancoal Australia Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Yancoal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Yancoal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Yancoal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Yancoal Australia price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Yancoal Australia Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Yancoal Australia on the next trading day is expected to be 3.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yancoal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yancoal Australia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Yancoal Australia Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Yancoal AustraliaYancoal Australia Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Yancoal Australia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Yancoal Australia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yancoal Australia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.68 and 5.44, respectively. We have considered Yancoal Australia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.50
3.06
Expected Value
5.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yancoal Australia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yancoal Australia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2235
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1238
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0405
SAESum of the absolute errors7.6775
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Yancoal Australia historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Yancoal Australia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yancoal Australia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.143.505.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.953.315.67
Details

Yancoal Australia After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Yancoal Australia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Yancoal Australia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Yancoal Australia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Yancoal Australia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Yancoal Australia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Yancoal Australia's historical news coverage. Yancoal Australia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.14 and 5.86, respectively. We have considered Yancoal Australia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
3.50
3.50
After-hype Price
5.86
Upside
Yancoal Australia is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Yancoal Australia is based on 3 months time horizon.

Yancoal Australia Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Yancoal Australia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Yancoal Australia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Yancoal Australia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.27 
2.38
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.50
3.50
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Yancoal Australia Hype Timeline

Yancoal Australia is at this time traded for 3.50on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Yancoal is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on Yancoal Australia is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.50. About 82.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.12. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Yancoal Australia last dividend was issued on the 14th of March 2023. The entity had 1:35 split on the 28th of September 2018. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yancoal Australia to cross-verify your projections.

Yancoal Australia Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Yancoal Australia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Yancoal Australia's future price movements. Getting to know how Yancoal Australia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Yancoal Australia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Yancoal Australia

For every potential investor in Yancoal, whether a beginner or expert, Yancoal Australia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yancoal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yancoal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yancoal Australia's price trends.

Yancoal Australia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yancoal Australia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yancoal Australia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yancoal Australia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Yancoal Australia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yancoal Australia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yancoal Australia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yancoal Australia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yancoal Australia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Yancoal Australia Risk Indicators

The analysis of Yancoal Australia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yancoal Australia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yancoal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Yancoal Australia

The number of cover stories for Yancoal Australia depends on current market conditions and Yancoal Australia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Yancoal Australia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Yancoal Australia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Yancoal Stock

Yancoal Australia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Yancoal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Yancoal with respect to the benefits of owning Yancoal Australia security.