CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| YCP Stock | EUR 78.53 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CONOCOPHILLIPS on the next trading day is expected to be 80.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.75. CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CONOCOPHILLIPS stock prices and determine the direction of CONOCOPHILLIPS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CONOCOPHILLIPS's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of CONOCOPHILLIPS's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CONOCOPHILLIPS hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CONOCOPHILLIPS from the perspective of CONOCOPHILLIPS response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CONOCOPHILLIPS on the next trading day is expected to be 80.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.75. CONOCOPHILLIPS after-hype prediction price | EUR 78.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CONOCOPHILLIPS |
CONOCOPHILLIPS Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CONOCOPHILLIPS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CONOCOPHILLIPS using various technical indicators. When you analyze CONOCOPHILLIPS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CONOCOPHILLIPS Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CONOCOPHILLIPS on the next trading day is expected to be 80.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85, mean absolute percentage error of 1.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CONOCOPHILLIPS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CONOCOPHILLIPS | CONOCOPHILLIPS Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CONOCOPHILLIPS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CONOCOPHILLIPS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CONOCOPHILLIPS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.79 and 81.34, respectively. We have considered CONOCOPHILLIPS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CONOCOPHILLIPS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CONOCOPHILLIPS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2811 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8484 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.7531 |
Predictive Modules for CONOCOPHILLIPS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CONOCOPHILLIPS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CONOCOPHILLIPS After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CONOCOPHILLIPS at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CONOCOPHILLIPS or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CONOCOPHILLIPS, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CONOCOPHILLIPS Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CONOCOPHILLIPS's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CONOCOPHILLIPS's historical news coverage. CONOCOPHILLIPS's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 77.25 and 79.81, respectively. We have considered CONOCOPHILLIPS's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CONOCOPHILLIPS is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CONOCOPHILLIPS is based on 3 months time horizon.
CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CONOCOPHILLIPS is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CONOCOPHILLIPS backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CONOCOPHILLIPS, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
78.53 | 78.53 | 0.00 |
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CONOCOPHILLIPS Hype Timeline
CONOCOPHILLIPS is at this time traded for 78.53on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. CONOCOPHILLIPS is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on CONOCOPHILLIPS is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 78.53. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.46. CONOCOPHILLIPS last dividend was issued on the 18th of July 1970. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CONOCOPHILLIPS to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock refer to our How to Trade CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock guide.CONOCOPHILLIPS Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CONOCOPHILLIPS's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CONOCOPHILLIPS's future price movements. Getting to know how CONOCOPHILLIPS's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CONOCOPHILLIPS may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FR7 | Fast Retailing Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.54 | 0 | 3.23 | (2.26) | 9.44 | |
| 14N1 | New Residential Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.91 | 0.06 | 2.41 | (1.82) | 5.10 | |
| FR70 | FAST RETAIL ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.72 | 0.04 | 3.29 | (2.55) | 10.12 | |
| VIP | Virtus Investment Partners | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.01 | (2.94) | 8.12 | |
| 9B7 | AOYAMA TRADING | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.92 | 0.03 | 1.57 | (1.56) | 6.22 | |
| RNT | REINET INVESTMENTS SCA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.20 | 0.09 | 7.87 | (5.84) | 21.40 | |
| G4A | GEAR4MUSIC LS 10 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.26 | (0.01) | 3.80 | (3.95) | 22.08 | |
| 33Z | ZEDER INVESTMENTS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.10 | (5.22) | 12.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for CONOCOPHILLIPS
For every potential investor in CONOCOPHILLIPS, whether a beginner or expert, CONOCOPHILLIPS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CONOCOPHILLIPS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CONOCOPHILLIPS's price trends.CONOCOPHILLIPS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CONOCOPHILLIPS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CONOCOPHILLIPS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CONOCOPHILLIPS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CONOCOPHILLIPS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CONOCOPHILLIPS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CONOCOPHILLIPS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CONOCOPHILLIPS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CONOCOPHILLIPS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CONOCOPHILLIPS Risk Indicators
The analysis of CONOCOPHILLIPS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CONOCOPHILLIPS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting conocophillips stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9888 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.54 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CONOCOPHILLIPS
The number of cover stories for CONOCOPHILLIPS depends on current market conditions and CONOCOPHILLIPS's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CONOCOPHILLIPS is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CONOCOPHILLIPS's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CONOCOPHILLIPS Short Properties
CONOCOPHILLIPS's future price predictability will typically decrease when CONOCOPHILLIPS's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CONOCOPHILLIPS often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CONOCOPHILLIPS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CONOCOPHILLIPS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Dividends Paid | 5.7 B | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 417 M |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock
When determining whether CONOCOPHILLIPS is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Conocophillips Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Conocophillips Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CONOCOPHILLIPS to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock refer to our How to Trade CONOCOPHILLIPS Stock guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.