Ermenegildo Zegna Stock Forward View
| ZGN Stock | USD 9.27 0.27 3.00% |
Ermenegildo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ermenegildo Zegna's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ermenegildo Zegna's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ermenegildo Zegna fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Ermenegildo Zegna's share price is approaching 43. This usually means that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ermenegildo Zegna, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.7 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.3709 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4128 | Wall Street Target Price 11.7215 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Using Ermenegildo Zegna hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ermenegildo Zegna NV from the perspective of Ermenegildo Zegna response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ermenegildo Zegna using Ermenegildo Zegna's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ermenegildo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ermenegildo Zegna's stock price.
Ermenegildo Zegna Short Interest
An investor who is long Ermenegildo Zegna may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ermenegildo Zegna and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ermenegildo Zegna with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.2137 | Short Percent 0.053 | Short Ratio 6.68 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.5 M | 50 Day MA 10.2676 |
Ermenegildo Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ermenegildo Zegna NV on the next trading day is expected to be 8.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.08.Ermenegildo Zegna Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ermenegildo Zegna's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ermenegildo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ermenegildo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ermenegildo Zegna NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ermenegildo Zegna's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ermenegildo Zegna.
Ermenegildo Zegna Implied Volatility | 1.22 |
Ermenegildo Zegna's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ermenegildo Zegna NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ermenegildo Zegna's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ermenegildo Zegna stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ermenegildo Zegna's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ermenegildo Zegna NV on the next trading day is expected to be 8.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.08. Ermenegildo Zegna after-hype prediction price | USD 9.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ermenegildo | Build AI portfolio with Ermenegildo Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ermenegildo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ermenegildo Zegna NV will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0763% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ermenegildo Zegna trading at USD 9.27, that is roughly USD 0.007068 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ermenegildo Zegna's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ermenegildo Zegna NV options at the current volatility level of 1.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ermenegildo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ermenegildo Zegna's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ermenegildo Zegna's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ermenegildo Zegna stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ermenegildo Zegna's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ermenegildo Zegna's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ermenegildo Zegna is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ermenegildo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ermenegildo Zegna Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ermenegildo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ermenegildo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ermenegildo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ermenegildo Zegna Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Ermenegildo Zegna's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2018-03-31 | Previous Quarter 219.1 M | Current Value 159.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 203.8 M |
Ermenegildo Zegna Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ermenegildo Zegna NV on the next trading day is expected to be 8.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ermenegildo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ermenegildo Zegna's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ermenegildo Zegna Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ermenegildo Zegna | Ermenegildo Zegna Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ermenegildo Zegna Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ermenegildo Zegna's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ermenegildo Zegna's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.68 and 11.06, respectively. We have considered Ermenegildo Zegna's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ermenegildo Zegna stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ermenegildo Zegna stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7157 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2472 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0244 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.0767 |
Predictive Modules for Ermenegildo Zegna
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ermenegildo Zegna. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ermenegildo Zegna After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ermenegildo Zegna at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ermenegildo Zegna or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ermenegildo Zegna, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ermenegildo Zegna Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ermenegildo Zegna's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ermenegildo Zegna's historical news coverage. Ermenegildo Zegna's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.31 and 11.69, respectively. We have considered Ermenegildo Zegna's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ermenegildo Zegna is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ermenegildo Zegna is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ermenegildo Zegna Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ermenegildo Zegna is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ermenegildo Zegna backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ermenegildo Zegna, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.69 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.27 | 9.00 | 0.00 |
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Ermenegildo Zegna Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Ermenegildo Zegna is traded for 9.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Ermenegildo is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ermenegildo Zegna is about 455.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.36. About 63.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The book value of Ermenegildo Zegna was at this time reported as 4.17. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.83. Ermenegildo Zegna last dividend was issued on the 7th of July 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ermenegildo Zegna to cross-verify your projections.Ermenegildo Zegna Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ermenegildo Zegna's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ermenegildo Zegna's future price movements. Getting to know how Ermenegildo Zegna's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ermenegildo Zegna may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HBI | Hanesbrands | 0.24 | 10 per month | 1.49 | (0.01) | 2.38 | (2.35) | 7.22 | |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear | 2.32 | 12 per month | 1.88 | 0.01 | 3.71 | (3.26) | 10.24 | |
| UAA | Under Armour A | 0.38 | 10 per month | 2.22 | 0.12 | 4.98 | (4.11) | 13.53 | |
| SHOO | Steven Madden | (0.22) | 10 per month | 1.33 | 0.15 | 4.06 | (2.49) | 17.28 | |
| LCII | LCI Industries | 0.53 | 8 per month | 0.41 | 0.31 | 5.33 | (1.91) | 11.30 | |
| GEF | Greif Bros | 0.12 | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.18 | 2.61 | (2.28) | 6.40 | |
| CPRI | Capri Holdings | 1.06 | 7 per month | 1.73 | 0.01 | 4.46 | (3.23) | 12.38 | |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | (0.75) | 6 per month | 1.95 | 0.18 | 5.78 | (3.60) | 19.53 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | 1.64 | 9 per month | 2.32 | 0.18 | 5.93 | (4.23) | 22.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ermenegildo Zegna
For every potential investor in Ermenegildo, whether a beginner or expert, Ermenegildo Zegna's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ermenegildo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ermenegildo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ermenegildo Zegna's price trends.Ermenegildo Zegna Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ermenegildo Zegna stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ermenegildo Zegna could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ermenegildo Zegna by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ermenegildo Zegna Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ermenegildo Zegna stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ermenegildo Zegna shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ermenegildo Zegna stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ermenegildo Zegna NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ermenegildo Zegna Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ermenegildo Zegna's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ermenegildo Zegna's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ermenegildo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Variance | 6.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ermenegildo Zegna
The number of cover stories for Ermenegildo Zegna depends on current market conditions and Ermenegildo Zegna's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ermenegildo Zegna is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ermenegildo Zegna's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ermenegildo Zegna Short Properties
Ermenegildo Zegna's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ermenegildo Zegna's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ermenegildo Zegna NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ermenegildo Zegna's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ermenegildo Zegna's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 254.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 296.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ermenegildo Zegna to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Will Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods sector continue expanding? Could Ermenegildo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ermenegildo Zegna. Anticipated expansion of Ermenegildo directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Ermenegildo Zegna data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.7 | Dividend Share 0.12 | Earnings Share 0.44 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Investors evaluate Ermenegildo Zegna using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Ermenegildo Zegna's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Ermenegildo Zegna's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ermenegildo Zegna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ermenegildo Zegna is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Ermenegildo Zegna's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.