APERAM REG (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.91
| 7AA Stock | EUR 27.16 0.12 0.44% |
APERAM |
APERAM REG Target Price Odds to finish below 22.91
The tendency of APERAM Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 22.91 or more in 90 days |
| 27.16 | 90 days | 22.91 | about 5.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of APERAM REG to drop to € 22.91 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.2 (This APERAM REG probability density function shows the probability of APERAM Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of APERAM REG price to stay between € 22.91 and its current price of €27.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 79.32 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon APERAM REG has a beta of 0.35. This suggests as returns on the market go up, APERAM REG average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding APERAM REG will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally APERAM REG has an alpha of 0.0827, implying that it can generate a 0.0827 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). APERAM REG Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for APERAM REG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as APERAM REG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.APERAM REG Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. APERAM REG is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the APERAM REG's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold APERAM REG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of APERAM REG within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
APERAM REG Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of APERAM Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential APERAM REG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. APERAM REG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 140 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 258 M |
APERAM REG Technical Analysis
APERAM REG's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. APERAM Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of APERAM REG. In general, you should focus on analyzing APERAM Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
APERAM REG Predictive Forecast Models
APERAM REG's time-series forecasting models is one of many APERAM REG's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary APERAM REG's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards APERAM REG in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, APERAM REG's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from APERAM REG options trading.
Additional Tools for APERAM Stock Analysis
When running APERAM REG's price analysis, check to measure APERAM REG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy APERAM REG is operating at the current time. Most of APERAM REG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of APERAM REG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move APERAM REG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of APERAM REG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.