Alcoa Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 45.23
| AA Stock | USD 45.80 1.62 3.42% |
Closest to current price Alcoa long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Alcoa |
Alcoa Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 45.23
The tendency of Alcoa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 45.23 in 90 days |
| 45.80 | 90 days | 45.23 | about 9.9 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa Corp to stay above $ 45.23 in 90 days from now is about 9.9 (This Alcoa Corp probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alcoa Corp price to stay between $ 45.23 and its current price of $45.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.8 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.98 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alcoa Corp will likely underperform. Additionally Alcoa Corp has an alpha of 0.2874, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alcoa Corp Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alcoa Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alcoa Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alcoa Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alcoa Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.98 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Alcoa Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alcoa Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alcoa Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alcoa Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company generated the yearly revenue of 10.55 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (773 M) with gross profit of 2.31 B. | |
| Alcoa Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of November 2024 Alcoa Corp paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Alcoa Corp Trading 3.34 percent Higher on Nov 25 |
Alcoa Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alcoa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 178 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 944 M |
Alcoa Corp Technical Analysis
Alcoa Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alcoa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alcoa Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alcoa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alcoa Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Alcoa Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alcoa Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alcoa Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alcoa Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alcoa Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alcoa Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alcoa Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company generated the yearly revenue of 10.55 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (773 M) with gross profit of 2.31 B. | |
| Alcoa Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 15th of November 2024 Alcoa Corp paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Alcoa Corp Trading 3.34 percent Higher on Nov 25 |
Check out Alcoa Corp Backtesting, Alcoa Corp Valuation, Alcoa Corp Correlation, Alcoa Corp Hype Analysis, Alcoa Corp Volatility, Alcoa Corp History as well as Alcoa Corp Performance. For information on how to trade Alcoa Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcoa Stock guide.You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.81 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share (1.56) | Revenue Per Share 57.238 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 |
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcoa Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.