American Airlines Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.54
| AAL Stock | USD 16.52 0.40 2.36% |
American |
American Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 4.54
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.54 or more in 90 days |
| 16.52 | 90 days | 4.54 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to drop to $ 4.54 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This American Airlines Group probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Airlines price to stay between $ 4.54 and its current price of $16.52 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American Airlines Group has a beta of -0.39. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding American Airlines are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, American Airlines Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally American Airlines Group has an alpha of 0.719, implying that it can generate a 0.72 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American Airlines Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Airlines Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.72 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
American Airlines Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American Airlines appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| American Airlines Group has 40.66 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.53, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. American Airlines has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| American Airlines has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 57.0% of American Airlines shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from usatoday.com: American Airlines leaving New York City diverted after apparent collision with bird |
American Airlines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 719.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.6 B |
American Airlines Technical Analysis
American Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Airlines Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
American Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many American Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Airlines
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American Airlines appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| American Airlines Group has 40.66 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.53, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. American Airlines has a current ratio of 0.77, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| American Airlines has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 57.0% of American Airlines shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from usatoday.com: American Airlines leaving New York City diverted after apparent collision with bird |
Check out American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Airlines. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Earnings Share 0.42 | Revenue Per Share 81.697 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.012 | Return On Assets 0.0275 |
The market value of American Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.