Aethlon Medical Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.04
| AEMD Stock | USD 0.37 0 0.27% |
Aethlon |
Aethlon Medical Target Price Odds to finish below 0.04
The tendency of Aethlon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.04 or more in 90 days |
| 0.37 | 90 days | 0.04 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aethlon Medical to drop to $ 0.04 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aethlon Medical probability density function shows the probability of Aethlon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aethlon Medical price to stay between $ 0.04 and its current price of $0.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.91 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aethlon Medical has a beta of 0.83. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aethlon Medical average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aethlon Medical will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aethlon Medical has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aethlon Medical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aethlon Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aethlon Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aethlon Medical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aethlon Medical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aethlon Medical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aethlon Medical, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aethlon Medical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.83 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Aethlon Medical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aethlon Medical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aethlon Medical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aethlon Medical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aethlon Medical has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aethlon Medical has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aethlon Medical has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (12.21 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 574.25 K. | |
| Aethlon Medical currently holds about 14.92 M in cash with (10.13 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.65, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Aethlon Medical has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Cipriani Guy F. of 120883 shares of Aethlon Medical at 2.52 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Aethlon Medical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aethlon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aethlon Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aethlon Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.4 M |
Aethlon Medical Technical Analysis
Aethlon Medical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aethlon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aethlon Medical. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aethlon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aethlon Medical Predictive Forecast Models
Aethlon Medical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aethlon Medical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aethlon Medical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aethlon Medical
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aethlon Medical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aethlon Medical help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aethlon Medical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aethlon Medical has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aethlon Medical has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aethlon Medical has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (12.21 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 574.25 K. | |
| Aethlon Medical currently holds about 14.92 M in cash with (10.13 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.65, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Aethlon Medical has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Cipriani Guy F. of 120883 shares of Aethlon Medical at 2.52 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Aethlon Medical Backtesting, Aethlon Medical Valuation, Aethlon Medical Correlation, Aethlon Medical Hype Analysis, Aethlon Medical Volatility, Aethlon Medical History as well as Aethlon Medical Performance. For information on how to trade Aethlon Stock refer to our How to Trade Aethlon Stock guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aethlon Medical. If investors know Aethlon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aethlon Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.79) | Revenue Per Share 0.236 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 42.782 | Return On Assets (0.50) | Return On Equity (1.05) |
The market value of Aethlon Medical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aethlon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aethlon Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aethlon Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aethlon Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aethlon Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aethlon Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aethlon Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aethlon Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.