Austral Gold (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.02
| AGD Stock | 0.02 0 8.00% |
Austral |
Austral Gold Target Price Odds to finish below 0.02
The tendency of Austral Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.02 or more in 90 days |
| 0.02 | 90 days | 0.02 | about 27.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Austral Gold to drop to 0.02 or more in 90 days from now is about 27.22 (This Austral Gold probability density function shows the probability of Austral Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Austral Gold price to stay between 0.02 and its current price of 0.023 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.53 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.64 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Austral Gold will likely underperform. Additionally Austral Gold has an alpha of 0.5759, implying that it can generate a 0.58 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Austral Gold Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Austral Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Austral Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Austral Gold Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Austral Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Austral Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Austral Gold, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Austral Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.58 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Austral Gold Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Austral Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Austral Gold can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Austral Gold is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Austral Gold has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Austral Gold appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Austral Gold has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 71.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (10.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.03 M. | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Austral Gold Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Austral Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Austral Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Austral Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 612.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 M |
Austral Gold Technical Analysis
Austral Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Austral Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Austral Gold. In general, you should focus on analyzing Austral Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Austral Gold Predictive Forecast Models
Austral Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Austral Gold's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Austral Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Austral Gold
Checking the ongoing alerts about Austral Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Austral Gold help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Austral Gold is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Austral Gold has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Austral Gold appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Austral Gold has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 71.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (10.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.03 M. | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Additional Tools for Austral Stock Analysis
When running Austral Gold's price analysis, check to measure Austral Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Austral Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Austral Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Austral Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Austral Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Austral Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.