Aurelia Metals (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0
| AMI Stock | 0.18 0.01 5.88% |
Aurelia |
Aurelia Metals Target Price Odds to finish below 0
The tendency of Aurelia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.00 or more in 90 days |
| 0.18 | 90 days | 0.00 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aurelia Metals to drop to 0.00 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aurelia Metals probability density function shows the probability of Aurelia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aurelia Metals price to stay between 0.00 and its current price of 0.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aurelia Metals has a beta of 0.31. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aurelia Metals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aurelia Metals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aurelia Metals has an alpha of 0.0739, implying that it can generate a 0.0739 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aurelia Metals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aurelia Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurelia Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aurelia Metals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aurelia Metals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aurelia Metals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aurelia Metals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aurelia Metals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0017 |
Aurelia Metals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aurelia Metals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aurelia Metals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aurelia Metals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aurelia Metals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 309.89 M. Net Loss for the year was (5.73 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (33.8 M). | |
| About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Aurelia Metals Updates Mineral Resource Estimates - TipRanks |
Aurelia Metals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aurelia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aurelia Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurelia Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 116.5 M |
Aurelia Metals Technical Analysis
Aurelia Metals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aurelia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aurelia Metals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aurelia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aurelia Metals Predictive Forecast Models
Aurelia Metals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aurelia Metals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aurelia Metals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aurelia Metals
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aurelia Metals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aurelia Metals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aurelia Metals has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Aurelia Metals had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the revenue of 309.89 M. Net Loss for the year was (5.73 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (33.8 M). | |
| About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Aurelia Metals Updates Mineral Resource Estimates - TipRanks |
Additional Tools for Aurelia Stock Analysis
When running Aurelia Metals' price analysis, check to measure Aurelia Metals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurelia Metals is operating at the current time. Most of Aurelia Metals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurelia Metals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurelia Metals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurelia Metals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.